WEBVTT

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Something<00:00:00.560><c> is</c><00:00:00.720><c> shifting</c><00:00:01.280><c> in</c><00:00:01.400><c> the</c><00:00:01.520><c> Pacific</c>

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Something is shifting in the Pacific
 

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Something is shifting in the Pacific
Ocean.

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Ocean.
 

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Ocean.
It's<00:00:03.720><c> not</c><00:00:03.920><c> a</c><00:00:04.000><c> storm</c><00:00:04.480><c> or</c><00:00:04.600><c> a</c><00:00:04.640><c> current</c><00:00:05.160><c> you</c><00:00:05.280><c> can</c>

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It's not a storm or a current you can
 

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It's not a storm or a current you can
see<00:00:05.680><c> from</c><00:00:05.880><c> the</c><00:00:06.000><c> surface,</c><00:00:06.960><c> but</c><00:00:07.120><c> a</c><00:00:07.200><c> slow,</c>

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see from the surface, but a slow,
 

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see from the surface, but a slow,
powerful<00:00:08.520><c> build-up</c><00:00:09.040><c> of</c><00:00:09.240><c> heat</c><00:00:09.880><c> spanning</c>

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powerful build-up of heat spanning
 

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powerful build-up of heat spanning
thousands<00:00:11.200><c> of</c><00:00:11.480><c> kilometers.</c><00:00:12.480><c> And</c><00:00:12.600><c> it's</c><00:00:12.720><c> been</c>

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thousands of kilometers. And it's been
 

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thousands of kilometers. And it's been
playing<00:00:13.200><c> a</c><00:00:13.320><c> dangerous</c><00:00:14.040><c> game</c><00:00:14.520><c> of</c><00:00:14.800><c> hide</c><00:00:15.280><c> and</c>

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playing a dangerous game of hide and
 

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playing a dangerous game of hide and
seek.<00:00:16.720><c> Now,</c><00:00:17.280><c> out</c><00:00:17.520><c> there</c><00:00:17.720><c> for</c><00:00:18.000><c> all</c><00:00:18.200><c> to</c><00:00:18.320><c> witness,</c>

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seek. Now, out there for all to witness,
 

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seek. Now, out there for all to witness,
the<00:00:19.240><c> Pacific</c><00:00:19.760><c> Ocean</c><00:00:20.120><c> is</c><00:00:20.360><c> undergoing</c><00:00:21.040><c> a</c>

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the Pacific Ocean is undergoing a
 

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the Pacific Ocean is undergoing a
violent<00:00:22.040><c> flip.</c>

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violent flip.
 

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violent flip.
The<00:00:23.480><c> latest</c><00:00:23.840><c> information</c><00:00:24.440><c> suggests</c><00:00:24.800><c> we</c><00:00:24.920><c> are</c>

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The latest information suggests we are
 

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The latest information suggests we are
on<00:00:25.120><c> the</c><00:00:25.240><c> precipice</c><00:00:25.920><c> of</c><00:00:26.080><c> a</c><00:00:26.200><c> super</c><00:00:27.000><c> El</c><00:00:27.240><c> Niño,</c>

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on the precipice of a super El Niño,
 

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on the precipice of a super El Niño,
possibly<00:00:28.480><c> the</c><00:00:28.640><c> strongest</c><00:00:29.280><c> El</c><00:00:29.440><c> Niño</c><00:00:29.960><c> event</c><00:00:30.280><c> in</c>

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possibly the strongest El Niño event in
 

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possibly the strongest El Niño event in
140

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140
 

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140
years.

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years.
 

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years.
A<00:00:33.720><c> very</c><00:00:34.160><c> rare</c><00:00:34.520><c> high-intensity</c><00:00:35.560><c> episode</c><00:00:36.480><c> that</c>

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A very rare high-intensity episode that
 

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A very rare high-intensity episode that
will<00:00:36.680><c> propel</c><00:00:37.240><c> global</c><00:00:37.600><c> temperatures</c><00:00:38.560><c> into</c>

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will propel global temperatures into
 

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will propel global temperatures into
uncharted<00:00:39.920><c> territory.</c>

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uncharted territory.
 

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uncharted territory.
This<00:00:41.960><c> isn't</c><00:00:42.280><c> a</c><00:00:42.440><c> seasonal</c><00:00:43.160><c> shift,</c><00:00:43.600><c> it's</c><00:00:43.760><c> a</c>

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This isn't a seasonal shift, it's a
 

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This isn't a seasonal shift, it's a
global<00:00:44.560><c> reorganization</c><00:00:45.720><c> of</c><00:00:46.040><c> energy.</c>

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global reorganization of energy.
 

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global reorganization of energy.
According<00:00:47.640><c> to</c><00:00:47.720><c> the</c><00:00:47.840><c> latest</c><00:00:48.280><c> data,</c><00:00:48.600><c> there</c><00:00:48.760><c> is</c>

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According to the latest data, there is
 

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According to the latest data, there is
now<00:00:49.080><c> a</c><00:00:49.200><c> 98%</c><00:00:50.520><c> chance</c><00:00:50.880><c> of</c><00:00:51.200><c> El</c><00:00:51.360><c> Niño</c><00:00:51.720><c> emerging</c><00:00:52.320><c> by</c>

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now a 98% chance of El Niño emerging by
 

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now a 98% chance of El Niño emerging by
August.<00:00:53.680><c> And</c><00:00:53.840><c> by</c><00:00:54.000><c> September</c><00:00:54.560><c> 2026,</c>

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August. And by September 2026,
 

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August. And by September 2026,
the<00:00:56.360><c> rise</c><00:00:56.720><c> of</c><00:00:56.840><c> a</c><00:00:56.960><c> full-blown</c><00:00:57.920><c> super</c><00:00:58.400><c> El</c><00:00:58.600><c> Niño</c>

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the rise of a full-blown super El Niño
 

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the rise of a full-blown super El Niño
is<00:00:59.720><c> now</c><00:01:00.040><c> almost</c><00:01:00.520><c> inevitable.</c>

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is now almost inevitable.
 

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is now almost inevitable.
This<00:01:02.720><c> kind</c><00:01:03.000><c> of</c><00:01:03.080><c> El</c><00:01:03.200><c> Niño</c><00:01:03.520><c> would</c><00:01:03.680><c> see</c>

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This kind of El Niño would see
 

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This kind of El Niño would see
intensified<00:01:04.760><c> heat</c><00:01:05.080><c> waves,</c><00:01:05.560><c> floods,</c>

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intensified heat waves, floods,
 

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intensified heat waves, floods,
droughts,<00:01:07.040><c> and</c><00:01:07.280><c> shifts</c><00:01:07.800><c> in</c><00:01:07.960><c> monsoon</c><00:01:08.440><c> and</c>

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droughts, and shifts in monsoon and
 

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droughts, and shifts in monsoon and
hurricane<00:01:08.960><c> patterns</c><00:01:09.520><c> all</c><00:01:09.840><c> around</c><00:01:10.320><c> the</c><00:01:10.440><c> world.</c>

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hurricane patterns all around the world.
 

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hurricane patterns all around the world.
Indeed,<00:01:12.080><c> could</c><00:01:12.480><c> a</c><00:01:12.600><c> 2026</c><00:01:13.800><c> super</c><00:01:14.200><c> El</c><00:01:14.400><c> Niño</c><00:01:14.840><c> push</c>

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Indeed, could a 2026 super El Niño push
 

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Indeed, could a 2026 super El Niño push
our<00:01:15.440><c> climate</c><00:01:16.480><c> past</c><00:01:16.800><c> the</c><00:01:16.880><c> point</c><00:01:17.600><c> of</c><00:01:17.760><c> no</c><00:01:17.960><c> return?</c>

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our climate past the point of no return?
 

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our climate past the point of no return?
I'm<00:01:19.400><c> James</c><00:01:19.680><c> Shaw</c><00:01:19.960><c> and</c><00:01:20.080><c> you're</c><00:01:20.200><c> watching</c>

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I'm James Shaw and you're watching
 

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I'm James Shaw and you're watching
Astrum<00:01:21.280><c> Earth.</c>

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Astrum Earth.
 

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Astrum Earth.
Join<00:01:22.520><c> me</c><00:01:22.640><c> today</c><00:01:22.840><c> as</c><00:01:22.960><c> we</c><00:01:23.000><c> look</c><00:01:23.120><c> at</c><00:01:23.200><c> the</c>

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Join me today as we look at the
 

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Join me today as we look at the
mechanics<00:01:24.080><c> of</c><00:01:24.240><c> this</c><00:01:24.480><c> climate</c><00:01:25.200><c> engine.</c><00:01:25.960><c> We'll</c>

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mechanics of this climate engine. We'll
 

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mechanics of this climate engine. We'll
discuss<00:01:26.520><c> why</c><00:01:26.800><c> 2026</c><00:01:27.720><c> is</c><00:01:27.840><c> becoming</c><00:01:28.200><c> the</c><00:01:28.400><c> perfect</c>

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discuss why 2026 is becoming the perfect
 

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discuss why 2026 is becoming the perfect
storm<00:01:29.480><c> for</c><00:01:30.360><c> a</c><00:01:30.560><c> record-breaking</c><00:01:31.680><c> event.</c><00:01:32.600><c> And</c>

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storm for a record-breaking event. And
 

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storm for a record-breaking event. And
we'll<00:01:32.880><c> look</c><00:01:33.080><c> at</c><00:01:33.200><c> what</c><00:01:33.400><c> a</c><00:01:33.480><c> planet</c><00:01:34.000><c> already</c>

01:34.310 --> 01:34.320 align:start position:0%
we'll look at what a planet already
 

01:34.320 --> 01:36.110 align:start position:0%
we'll look at what a planet already
pushed<00:01:34.600><c> to</c><00:01:34.680><c> the</c><00:01:34.760><c> brink</c><00:01:35.040><c> by</c><00:01:35.240><c> climate</c><00:01:35.720><c> change</c>

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pushed to the brink by climate change
 

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pushed to the brink by climate change
does<00:01:37.040><c> when</c><00:01:37.160><c> its</c><00:01:37.320><c> largest</c><00:01:37.920><c> natural</c><00:01:38.360><c> cooling</c>

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does when its largest natural cooling
 

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does when its largest natural cooling
mechanism<00:01:39.680><c> is</c><00:01:39.800><c> replaced</c><00:01:40.640><c> by</c><00:01:40.800><c> a</c><00:01:40.880><c> furnace.</c>

01:45.950 --> 01:45.960 align:start position:0%
 
 

01:45.960 --> 01:47.350 align:start position:0%
 
I<00:01:46.040><c> didn't</c><00:01:46.280><c> expect</c><00:01:46.600><c> to</c><00:01:46.680><c> making</c><00:01:46.960><c> this</c><00:01:47.120><c> video</c>

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I didn't expect to making this video
 

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I didn't expect to making this video
quite<00:01:47.600><c> as</c><00:01:47.840><c> quickly</c><00:01:48.120><c> as</c><00:01:48.240><c> I</c><00:01:48.320><c> am,</c><00:01:48.520><c> to</c><00:01:48.600><c> be</c><00:01:48.680><c> honest</c>

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quite as quickly as I am, to be honest
 

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quite as quickly as I am, to be honest
with<00:01:49.000><c> you.</c><00:01:49.400><c> Let</c><00:01:49.520><c> me</c><00:01:49.600><c> take</c><00:01:49.720><c> you</c><00:01:49.800><c> back</c><00:01:50.000><c> a</c><00:01:50.040><c> few</c>

01:50.230 --> 01:50.240 align:start position:0%
with you. Let me take you back a few
 

01:50.240 --> 01:52.270 align:start position:0%
with you. Let me take you back a few
months<00:01:50.560><c> to</c><00:01:50.680><c> a</c><00:01:50.720><c> video</c><00:01:51.120><c> I</c><00:01:51.240><c> made</c><00:01:51.560><c> about</c><00:01:51.800><c> the</c><00:01:51.960><c> weak</c>

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months to a video I made about the weak
 

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months to a video I made about the weak
La<00:01:52.400><c> Niña</c><00:01:52.760><c> we</c><00:01:52.880><c> had</c><00:01:53.120><c> in</c><00:01:53.240><c> 2025</c><00:01:53.960><c> that</c><00:01:54.080><c> went</c><00:01:54.280><c> into</c>

01:54.430 --> 01:54.440 align:start position:0%
La Niña we had in 2025 that went into
 

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La Niña we had in 2025 that went into
2026.<00:01:55.840><c> And</c><00:01:55.960><c> in</c><00:01:56.000><c> fact,</c><00:01:56.240><c> it</c><00:01:56.320><c> was</c><00:01:56.600><c> so</c><00:01:57.000><c> weak,</c><00:01:57.320><c> we</c>

01:57.470 --> 01:57.480 align:start position:0%
2026. And in fact, it was so weak, we
 

01:57.480 --> 01:59.990 align:start position:0%
2026. And in fact, it was so weak, we
suggested<00:01:57.960><c> in</c><00:01:58.200><c> that</c><00:01:58.440><c> video</c><00:01:59.120><c> that</c><00:01:59.280><c> a</c><00:01:59.360><c> Pacific</c>

01:59.990 --> 02:00.000 align:start position:0%
suggested in that video that a Pacific
 

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suggested in that video that a Pacific
flip<00:02:00.560><c> was</c><00:02:00.880><c> possible.</c><00:02:01.840><c> A</c><00:02:01.920><c> kind</c><00:02:02.120><c> of</c><00:02:02.280><c> climate</c>

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flip was possible. A kind of climate
 

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flip was possible. A kind of climate
whiplash,<00:02:03.440><c> where</c><00:02:03.560><c> after</c><00:02:03.760><c> months</c><00:02:04.080><c> of</c><00:02:04.200><c> La</c>

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whiplash, where after months of La
 

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whiplash, where after months of La
Niña's<00:02:04.720><c> cold</c><00:02:05.106><c> [music]</c><00:02:05.160><c> pattern,</c><00:02:05.920><c> the</c><00:02:06.000><c> Pacific</c>

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Niña's cold [music] pattern, the Pacific
 

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Niña's cold [music] pattern, the Pacific
would<00:02:06.479><c> be</c><00:02:06.640><c> primed</c><00:02:07.040><c> to</c><00:02:07.160><c> swing</c><00:02:07.520><c> hot</c><00:02:07.880><c> and</c><00:02:08.080><c> bring</c>

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would be primed to swing hot and bring
 

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would be primed to swing hot and bring
on<00:02:08.440><c> a</c><00:02:08.520><c> sort</c><00:02:08.640><c> of</c><00:02:08.759><c> monster</c><00:02:09.440><c> of</c><00:02:09.520><c> an</c><00:02:09.640><c> El</c><00:02:09.759><c> Niño.</c>

02:11.510 --> 02:11.520 align:start position:0%
on a sort of monster of an El Niño.
 

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on a sort of monster of an El Niño.
Now,<00:02:11.680><c> when</c><00:02:11.840><c> I</c><00:02:11.880><c> made</c><00:02:12.080><c> that</c><00:02:12.240><c> video,</c><00:02:12.440><c> the</c><00:02:12.560><c> chances</c>

02:12.990 --> 02:13.000 align:start position:0%
Now, when I made that video, the chances
 

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Now, when I made that video, the chances
of<00:02:13.080><c> that</c><00:02:13.240><c> actually</c><00:02:13.680><c> happening</c><00:02:14.240><c> were</c><00:02:14.480><c> quite</c>

02:14.830 --> 02:14.840 align:start position:0%
of that actually happening were quite
 

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of that actually happening were quite
low,<00:02:15.400><c> and</c><00:02:15.520><c> we</c><00:02:15.640><c> didn't</c><00:02:15.840><c> know</c><00:02:16.080><c> how</c><00:02:16.520><c> hot</c><00:02:16.880><c> things</c>

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low, and we didn't know how hot things
 

02:17.280 --> 02:19.750 align:start position:0%
low, and we didn't know how hot things
might<00:02:17.600><c> get</c><00:02:18.080><c> if</c><00:02:18.280><c> indeed</c><00:02:18.680><c> they</c><00:02:18.840><c> would</c><00:02:19.000><c> at</c><00:02:19.200><c> all.</c>

02:19.750 --> 02:19.760 align:start position:0%
might get if indeed they would at all.
 

02:19.760 --> 02:21.670 align:start position:0%
might get if indeed they would at all.
But,<00:02:20.040><c> as</c><00:02:20.200><c> it</c><00:02:20.320><c> turns</c><00:02:20.680><c> out,</c><00:02:20.920><c> that</c><00:02:21.160><c> prediction</c>

02:21.670 --> 02:21.680 align:start position:0%
But, as it turns out, that prediction
 

02:21.680 --> 02:24.150 align:start position:0%
But, as it turns out, that prediction
was<00:02:21.959><c> bang</c><00:02:22.480><c> on,</c><00:02:22.920><c> and</c><00:02:23.040><c> it's</c><00:02:23.320><c> coming</c><00:02:23.680><c> true</c>

02:24.150 --> 02:24.160 align:start position:0%
was bang on, and it's coming true
 

02:24.160 --> 02:26.750 align:start position:0%
was bang on, and it's coming true
unfortunately<00:02:25.520><c> right</c><00:02:25.880><c> in</c><00:02:26.040><c> front</c><00:02:26.440><c> of</c><00:02:26.520><c> our</c>

02:26.750 --> 02:26.760 align:start position:0%
unfortunately right in front of our
 

02:26.760 --> 02:29.270 align:start position:0%
unfortunately right in front of our
eyes.<00:02:27.520><c> And</c><00:02:27.640><c> things</c><00:02:28.000><c> are</c><00:02:28.080><c> escalating</c><00:02:28.880><c> pretty</c>

02:29.270 --> 02:29.280 align:start position:0%
eyes. And things are escalating pretty
 

02:29.280 --> 02:31.230 align:start position:0%
eyes. And things are escalating pretty
quickly.<00:02:30.080><c> So,</c><00:02:30.200><c> here's</c><00:02:30.360><c> a</c><00:02:30.400><c> quick</c><00:02:30.560><c> recap</c><00:02:30.920><c> if</c><00:02:31.120><c> you</c>

02:31.230 --> 02:31.240 align:start position:0%
quickly. So, here's a quick recap if you
 

02:31.240 --> 02:33.430 align:start position:0%
quickly. So, here's a quick recap if you
missed<00:02:31.480><c> that</c><00:02:31.680><c> video.</c><00:02:32.160><c> The</c><00:02:32.280><c> El</c><00:02:32.440><c> Niño</c><00:02:32.959><c> Southern</c>

02:33.430 --> 02:33.440 align:start position:0%
missed that video. The El Niño Southern
 

02:33.440 --> 02:36.110 align:start position:0%
missed that video. The El Niño Southern
Oscillation,<00:02:34.360><c> or</c><00:02:34.600><c> ENSO,</c><00:02:35.400><c> is</c><00:02:35.520><c> a</c><00:02:35.560><c> term</c><00:02:35.880><c> used</c><00:02:36.080><c> to</c>

02:36.110 --> 02:36.120 align:start position:0%
Oscillation, or ENSO, is a term used to
 

02:36.120 --> 02:38.430 align:start position:0%
Oscillation, or ENSO, is a term used to
describe<00:02:36.560><c> a</c><00:02:36.680><c> cycle</c><00:02:37.280><c> of</c><00:02:37.440><c> variations</c><00:02:38.280><c> in</c><00:02:38.360><c> the</c>

02:38.430 --> 02:38.440 align:start position:0%
describe a cycle of variations in the
 

02:38.440 --> 02:40.870 align:start position:0%
describe a cycle of variations in the
Pacific<00:02:38.920><c> Ocean's</c><00:02:39.480><c> surface</c><00:02:39.880><c> temperatures</c><00:02:40.520><c> and</c>

02:40.870 --> 02:40.880 align:start position:0%
Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures and
 

02:40.880 --> 02:43.670 align:start position:0%
Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures and
air<00:02:41.080><c> pressure</c><00:02:41.800><c> near</c><00:02:42.040><c> the</c><00:02:42.160><c> equator.</c><00:02:43.160><c> Normally,</c>

02:43.670 --> 02:43.680 align:start position:0%
air pressure near the equator. Normally,
 

02:43.680 --> 02:45.870 align:start position:0%
air pressure near the equator. Normally,
trade<00:02:44.080><c> winds</c><00:02:44.360><c> drive</c><00:02:44.760><c> warm</c><00:02:45.080><c> surface</c><00:02:45.560><c> water</c>

02:45.870 --> 02:45.880 align:start position:0%
trade winds drive warm surface water
 

02:45.880 --> 02:47.830 align:start position:0%
trade winds drive warm surface water
from<00:02:46.120><c> near</c><00:02:46.320><c> South</c><00:02:46.680><c> America,</c><00:02:47.400><c> the</c><00:02:47.520><c> Eastern</c>

02:47.830 --> 02:47.840 align:start position:0%
from near South America, the Eastern
 

02:47.840 --> 02:50.670 align:start position:0%
from near South America, the Eastern
Pacific,<00:02:48.360><c> towards</c><00:02:49.080><c> Asia.</c><00:02:49.920><c> As</c><00:02:50.120><c> that</c><00:02:50.400><c> warm</c>

02:50.670 --> 02:50.680 align:start position:0%
Pacific, towards Asia. As that warm
 

02:50.680 --> 02:52.550 align:start position:0%
Pacific, towards Asia. As that warm
water<00:02:50.920><c> moves</c><00:02:51.120><c> away</c><00:02:51.360><c> from</c><00:02:51.560><c> South</c><00:02:51.800><c> America,</c>

02:52.550 --> 02:52.560 align:start position:0%
water moves away from South America,
 

02:52.560 --> 02:54.750 align:start position:0%
water moves away from South America,
cold<00:02:53.040><c> water</c><00:02:53.440><c> rises</c><00:02:53.840><c> to</c><00:02:53.959><c> replace</c><00:02:54.440><c> it</c><00:02:54.640><c> in</c><00:02:54.720><c> a</c>

02:54.750 --> 02:54.760 align:start position:0%
cold water rises to replace it in a
 

02:54.760 --> 02:57.230 align:start position:0%
cold water rises to replace it in a
process<00:02:55.200><c> called</c><00:02:55.520><c> upwelling.</c><00:02:56.520><c> This</c><00:02:56.720><c> situation</c>

02:57.230 --> 02:57.240 align:start position:0%
process called upwelling. This situation
 

02:57.240 --> 02:59.462 align:start position:0%
process called upwelling. This situation
is<00:02:57.400><c> called</c><00:02:57.720><c> ENSO</c><00:02:58.360><c> neutral.</c>

02:59.462 --> 02:59.470 align:start position:0%
is called ENSO neutral.
 

02:59.470 --> 02:59.472 align:start position:0%
 
 

02:59.472 --> 02:59.480 align:start position:0%
 
&gt;&gt; [music]

02:59.480 --> 03:01.350 align:start position:0%
&gt;&gt; [music]
&gt;&gt; Now,<00:02:59.840><c> if</c><00:03:00.000><c> those</c><00:03:00.200><c> trade</c><00:03:00.519><c> winds</c><00:03:00.760><c> are</c><00:03:00.959><c> weaker</c>

03:01.350 --> 03:01.360 align:start position:0%
&gt;&gt; Now, if those trade winds are weaker
 

03:01.360 --> 03:03.790 align:start position:0%
&gt;&gt; Now, if those trade winds are weaker
than<00:03:01.640><c> usual,</c><00:03:02.560><c> this</c><00:03:02.840><c> upwelling</c><00:03:03.280><c> effect</c>

03:03.790 --> 03:03.800 align:start position:0%
than usual, this upwelling effect
 

03:03.800 --> 03:06.430 align:start position:0%
than usual, this upwelling effect
lessens,<00:03:04.760><c> resulting</c><00:03:05.239><c> in</c><00:03:05.360><c> a</c><00:03:05.440><c> warmer</c><00:03:05.840><c> patch</c><00:03:06.280><c> in</c>

03:06.430 --> 03:06.440 align:start position:0%
lessens, resulting in a warmer patch in
 

03:06.440 --> 03:09.470 align:start position:0%
lessens, resulting in a warmer patch in
the<00:03:06.600><c> Eastern</c><00:03:07.040><c> Pacific</c><00:03:07.760><c> Ocean.</c><00:03:08.680><c> If</c><00:03:09.040><c> those</c><00:03:09.280><c> sea</c>

03:09.470 --> 03:09.480 align:start position:0%
the Eastern Pacific Ocean. If those sea
 

03:09.480 --> 03:10.870 align:start position:0%
the Eastern Pacific Ocean. If those sea
surface<00:03:09.840><c> temperatures</c><00:03:10.239><c> rise</c><00:03:10.480><c> by</c><00:03:10.560><c> more</c><00:03:10.720><c> than</c>

03:10.870 --> 03:10.880 align:start position:0%
surface temperatures rise by more than
 

03:10.880 --> 03:13.430 align:start position:0%
surface temperatures rise by more than
half<00:03:11.239><c> a</c><00:03:11.280><c> degree</c><00:03:11.640><c> Celsius</c><00:03:12.239><c> above</c><00:03:12.800><c> average,</c>

03:13.430 --> 03:13.440 align:start position:0%
half a degree Celsius above average,
 

03:13.440 --> 03:16.790 align:start position:0%
half a degree Celsius above average,
then<00:03:13.760><c> that</c><00:03:14.720><c> is</c><00:03:14.880><c> an</c><00:03:15.040><c> El</c><00:03:15.239><c> Niño.</c><00:03:16.200><c> Conversely,</c>

03:16.790 --> 03:16.800 align:start position:0%
then that is an El Niño. Conversely,
 

03:16.800 --> 03:18.630 align:start position:0%
then that is an El Niño. Conversely,
when<00:03:16.959><c> trade</c><00:03:17.239><c> winds</c><00:03:17.480><c> are</c><00:03:17.640><c> stronger,</c><00:03:18.280><c> ocean</c>

03:18.630 --> 03:18.640 align:start position:0%
when trade winds are stronger, ocean
 

03:18.640 --> 03:20.470 align:start position:0%
when trade winds are stronger, ocean
temperatures<00:03:19.120><c> dip</c><00:03:19.400><c> below</c><00:03:19.800><c> average,</c><00:03:20.200><c> and</c><00:03:20.360><c> we</c>

03:20.470 --> 03:20.480 align:start position:0%
temperatures dip below average, and we
 

03:20.480 --> 03:22.790 align:start position:0%
temperatures dip below average, and we
see<00:03:20.720><c> a</c><00:03:20.800><c> La</c><00:03:20.959><c> Niña</c><00:03:21.560><c> develop,</c><00:03:22.400><c> where</c><00:03:22.560><c> those</c>

03:22.790 --> 03:22.800 align:start position:0%
see a La Niña develop, where those
 

03:22.800 --> 03:24.150 align:start position:0%
see a La Niña develop, where those
temperatures<00:03:23.200><c> are</c><00:03:23.280><c> more</c><00:03:23.440><c> than</c><00:03:23.600><c> half</c><00:03:23.880><c> a</c><00:03:23.920><c> degree</c>

03:24.150 --> 03:24.160 align:start position:0%
temperatures are more than half a degree
 

03:24.160 --> 03:26.870 align:start position:0%
temperatures are more than half a degree
Celsius<00:03:24.880><c> lower</c><00:03:25.280><c> than</c><00:03:25.480><c> average.</c><00:03:26.440><c> This</c><00:03:26.600><c> cycle</c>

03:26.870 --> 03:26.880 align:start position:0%
Celsius lower than average. This cycle
 

03:26.880 --> 03:28.270 align:start position:0%
Celsius lower than average. This cycle
lasts<00:03:27.120><c> between</c><00:03:27.480><c> 9</c><00:03:27.640><c> and</c><00:03:27.760><c> 12</c><00:03:27.959><c> months</c><00:03:28.200><c> and</c>

03:28.270 --> 03:28.280 align:start position:0%
lasts between 9 and 12 months and
 

03:28.280 --> 03:31.229 align:start position:0%
lasts between 9 and 12 months and
repeats<00:03:28.640><c> every</c><00:03:29.000><c> two</c><00:03:29.360><c> to</c><00:03:29.560><c> seven</c><00:03:30.040><c> years.</c><00:03:30.760><c> And</c><00:03:31.120><c> at</c>

03:31.229 --> 03:31.239 align:start position:0%
repeats every two to seven years. And at
 

03:31.239 --> 03:33.710 align:start position:0%
repeats every two to seven years. And at
the<00:03:31.360><c> time</c><00:03:31.600><c> of</c><00:03:31.760><c> recording,</c><00:03:32.640><c> we're</c><00:03:32.920><c> in</c><00:03:33.080><c> an</c><00:03:33.239><c> ENSO</c>

03:33.710 --> 03:33.720 align:start position:0%
the time of recording, we're in an ENSO
 

03:33.720 --> 03:36.070 align:start position:0%
the time of recording, we're in an ENSO
neutral<00:03:34.280><c> state,</c><00:03:35.000><c> at</c><00:03:35.160><c> least</c><00:03:35.440><c> according</c><00:03:35.880><c> to</c>

03:36.070 --> 03:36.080 align:start position:0%
neutral state, at least according to
 

03:36.080 --> 03:39.949 align:start position:0%
neutral state, at least according to
NOAA.<00:03:37.120><c> But,</c><00:03:37.239><c> not</c><00:03:37.400><c> for</c><00:03:37.519><c> much</c><00:03:37.720><c> longer.</c>

03:39.949 --> 03:39.959 align:start position:0%
NOAA. But, not for much longer.
 

03:39.959 --> 03:42.390 align:start position:0%
NOAA. But, not for much longer.
During<00:03:40.440><c> an</c><00:03:40.640><c> El</c><00:03:40.800><c> Niño,</c><00:03:41.320><c> Eastern</c><00:03:41.680><c> Pacific</c><00:03:42.160><c> sea</c>

03:42.390 --> 03:42.400 align:start position:0%
During an El Niño, Eastern Pacific sea
 

03:42.400 --> 03:44.070 align:start position:0%
During an El Niño, Eastern Pacific sea
surface<00:03:42.720><c> temperatures</c><00:03:43.160><c> usually</c><00:03:43.519><c> do</c><00:03:43.800><c> reach</c>

03:44.070 --> 03:44.080 align:start position:0%
surface temperatures usually do reach
 

03:44.080 --> 03:46.470 align:start position:0%
surface temperatures usually do reach
around<00:03:44.400><c> 1</c><00:03:44.640><c> to</c><00:03:44.760><c> 3</c><00:03:45.040><c> degrees</c><00:03:45.400><c> Celsius</c><00:03:45.959><c> above</c>

03:46.470 --> 03:46.480 align:start position:0%
around 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above
 

03:46.480 --> 03:48.310 align:start position:0%
around 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above
normal,<00:03:47.120><c> shifting</c><00:03:47.560><c> tropical</c><00:03:47.880><c> convection</c>

03:48.310 --> 03:48.320 align:start position:0%
normal, shifting tropical convection
 

03:48.320 --> 03:50.910 align:start position:0%
normal, shifting tropical convection
currents<00:03:48.760><c> and</c><00:03:49.080><c> jet</c><00:03:49.360><c> streams.</c><00:03:50.280><c> This</c><00:03:50.519><c> typically</c>

03:50.910 --> 03:50.920 align:start position:0%
currents and jet streams. This typically
 

03:50.920 --> 03:53.310 align:start position:0%
currents and jet streams. This typically
brings<00:03:51.360><c> wetter</c><00:03:51.720><c> winters</c><00:03:52.080><c> to</c><00:03:52.240><c> California</c><00:03:53.040><c> and</c>

03:53.310 --> 03:53.320 align:start position:0%
brings wetter winters to California and
 

03:53.320 --> 03:55.950 align:start position:0%
brings wetter winters to California and
some<00:03:53.640><c> regions</c><00:03:54.000><c> in</c><00:03:54.200><c> South</c><00:03:54.520><c> America</c><00:03:55.400><c> and</c><00:03:55.640><c> dry</c>

03:55.950 --> 03:55.960 align:start position:0%
some regions in South America and dry
 

03:55.960 --> 03:58.150 align:start position:0%
some regions in South America and dry
conditions<00:03:56.440><c> to</c><00:03:56.640><c> Australia,</c><00:03:57.280><c> Indonesia,</c><00:03:57.920><c> and</c>

03:58.150 --> 03:58.160 align:start position:0%
conditions to Australia, Indonesia, and
 

03:58.160 --> 03:59.950 align:start position:0%
conditions to Australia, Indonesia, and
Southern<00:03:58.600><c> Africa.</c>

03:59.950 --> 03:59.960 align:start position:0%
Southern Africa.
 

03:59.960 --> 04:02.070 align:start position:0%
Southern Africa.
In<00:04:00.080><c> fact,</c><00:04:00.280><c> one</c><00:04:00.440><c> strange</c><00:04:00.800><c> quirk</c><00:04:01.120><c> of</c><00:04:01.440><c> El</c><00:04:01.640><c> Niño</c><00:04:01.960><c> is</c>

04:02.070 --> 04:02.080 align:start position:0%
In fact, one strange quirk of El Niño is
 

04:02.080 --> 04:04.310 align:start position:0%
In fact, one strange quirk of El Niño is
that<00:04:02.160><c> it</c><00:04:02.280><c> tends</c><00:04:02.600><c> to</c><00:04:02.720><c> suppress</c><00:04:03.560><c> Atlantic</c>

04:04.310 --> 04:04.320 align:start position:0%
that it tends to suppress Atlantic
 

04:04.320 --> 04:06.790 align:start position:0%
that it tends to suppress Atlantic
hurricanes.<00:04:05.320><c> What</c><00:04:05.440><c> it</c><00:04:05.560><c> does</c><00:04:05.760><c> is</c><00:04:05.920><c> increase</c>

04:06.790 --> 04:06.800 align:start position:0%
hurricanes. What it does is increase
 

04:06.800 --> 04:08.510 align:start position:0%
hurricanes. What it does is increase
upper-level<00:04:07.360><c> winds</c><00:04:07.760><c> across</c><00:04:08.040><c> the</c><00:04:08.160><c> tropical</c>

04:08.510 --> 04:08.520 align:start position:0%
upper-level winds across the tropical
 

04:08.520 --> 04:10.990 align:start position:0%
upper-level winds across the tropical
Atlantic.<00:04:09.480><c> That</c><00:04:09.840><c> then</c><00:04:10.080><c> creates</c><00:04:10.520><c> wind</c><00:04:10.840><c> shear</c>

04:10.990 --> 04:11.000 align:start position:0%
Atlantic. That then creates wind shear
 

04:11.000 --> 04:13.150 align:start position:0%
Atlantic. That then creates wind shear
that<00:04:11.160><c> pulls</c><00:04:11.480><c> apart</c><00:04:11.920><c> tropical</c><00:04:12.360><c> storm</c><00:04:12.720><c> systems</c>

04:13.150 --> 04:13.160 align:start position:0%
that pulls apart tropical storm systems
 

04:13.160 --> 04:15.190 align:start position:0%
that pulls apart tropical storm systems
before<00:04:14.120><c> they</c><00:04:14.240><c> can</c><00:04:14.400><c> develop</c><00:04:14.800><c> into</c><00:04:15.080><c> the</c>

04:15.190 --> 04:15.200 align:start position:0%
before they can develop into the
 

04:15.200 --> 04:16.750 align:start position:0%
before they can develop into the
hurricanes.

04:16.750 --> 04:16.760 align:start position:0%
hurricanes.
 

04:16.760 --> 04:18.190 align:start position:0%
hurricanes.
But<00:04:16.840><c> unfortunately,</c><00:04:17.560><c> it's</c><00:04:17.680><c> bad</c><00:04:17.959><c> news</c>

04:18.190 --> 04:18.200 align:start position:0%
But unfortunately, it's bad news
 

04:18.200 --> 04:20.030 align:start position:0%
But unfortunately, it's bad news
elsewhere<00:04:18.799><c> because</c><00:04:19.160><c> it</c><00:04:19.239><c> enhances</c><00:04:19.920><c> the</c>

04:20.030 --> 04:20.040 align:start position:0%
elsewhere because it enhances the
 

04:20.040 --> 04:22.510 align:start position:0%
elsewhere because it enhances the
potential<00:04:20.480><c> for</c><00:04:20.600><c> Pacific</c><00:04:21.280><c> storms.</c><00:04:22.160><c> That's</c><00:04:22.400><c> due</c>

04:22.510 --> 04:22.520 align:start position:0%
potential for Pacific storms. That's due
 

04:22.520 --> 04:24.630 align:start position:0%
potential for Pacific storms. That's due
to<00:04:22.600><c> an</c><00:04:22.680><c> increase</c><00:04:23.120><c> in</c><00:04:23.360><c> energy</c><00:04:23.840><c> in</c><00:04:24.080><c> the</c><00:04:24.280><c> ocean</c>

04:24.630 --> 04:24.640 align:start position:0%
to an increase in energy in the ocean
 

04:24.640 --> 04:26.630 align:start position:0%
to an increase in energy in the ocean
because<00:04:24.960><c> warm</c><00:04:25.240><c> surface</c><00:04:25.720><c> water</c><00:04:26.040><c> fuels</c><00:04:26.560><c> the</c>

04:26.630 --> 04:26.640 align:start position:0%
because warm surface water fuels the
 

04:26.640 --> 04:28.790 align:start position:0%
because warm surface water fuels the
development<00:04:27.160><c> of</c><00:04:27.280><c> tropical</c><00:04:27.720><c> storms,</c><00:04:28.200><c> which</c>

04:28.790 --> 04:28.800 align:start position:0%
development of tropical storms, which
 

04:28.800 --> 04:30.990 align:start position:0%
development of tropical storms, which
turn<00:04:29.040><c> into</c><00:04:29.280><c> cyclones.</c>

04:30.990 --> 04:31.000 align:start position:0%
turn into cyclones.
 

04:31.000 --> 04:32.510 align:start position:0%
turn into cyclones.
It<00:04:31.080><c> also</c><00:04:31.360><c> generally</c><00:04:31.800><c> raises</c><00:04:32.200><c> global</c>

04:32.510 --> 04:32.520 align:start position:0%
It also generally raises global
 

04:32.520 --> 04:36.150 align:start position:0%
It also generally raises global
temperatures<00:04:32.960><c> by</c><00:04:33.320><c> 0.1</c><00:04:34.120><c> to</c><00:04:34.240><c> 0.2°C</c><00:04:35.600><c> above</c>

04:36.150 --> 04:36.160 align:start position:0%
temperatures by 0.1 to 0.2°C above
 

04:36.160 --> 04:38.590 align:start position:0%
temperatures by 0.1 to 0.2°C above
trend,<00:04:37.040><c> often</c><00:04:37.320><c> producing</c><00:04:37.720><c> the</c><00:04:37.840><c> warmest</c><00:04:38.320><c> years</c>

04:38.590 --> 04:38.600 align:start position:0%
trend, often producing the warmest years
 

04:38.600 --> 04:41.190 align:start position:0%
trend, often producing the warmest years
on<00:04:38.880><c> record</c><00:04:39.400><c> if</c><00:04:39.640><c> they</c><00:04:39.800><c> coincide</c><00:04:40.440><c> with</c><00:04:40.640><c> ongoing</c>

04:41.190 --> 04:41.200 align:start position:0%
on record if they coincide with ongoing
 

04:41.200 --> 04:43.150 align:start position:0%
on record if they coincide with ongoing
warming.<00:04:42.200><c> Now,</c><00:04:42.360><c> I</c><00:04:42.400><c> should</c><00:04:42.600><c> point</c><00:04:42.840><c> out</c><00:04:42.960><c> at</c><00:04:43.000><c> this</c>

04:43.150 --> 04:43.160 align:start position:0%
warming. Now, I should point out at this
 

04:43.160 --> 04:44.950 align:start position:0%
warming. Now, I should point out at this
point<00:04:43.360><c> that</c><00:04:43.480><c> this</c><00:04:43.600><c> is</c><00:04:43.680><c> not</c><00:04:43.880><c> a</c><00:04:43.960><c> new</c><00:04:44.400><c> concept,</c>

04:44.950 --> 04:44.960 align:start position:0%
point that this is not a new concept,
 

04:44.960 --> 04:47.630 align:start position:0%
point that this is not a new concept,
nor<00:04:45.200><c> is</c><00:04:45.360><c> having</c><00:04:45.600><c> an</c><00:04:45.680><c> El</c><00:04:45.800><c> Niño</c><00:04:46.160><c> a</c><00:04:46.280><c> product</c><00:04:47.240><c> of</c>

04:47.630 --> 04:47.640 align:start position:0%
nor is having an El Niño a product of
 

04:47.640 --> 04:49.830 align:start position:0%
nor is having an El Niño a product of
climate<00:04:48.080><c> change.</c><00:04:48.840><c> It's</c><00:04:49.000><c> a</c><00:04:49.040><c> natural</c><00:04:49.440><c> part</c><00:04:49.760><c> of</c>

04:49.830 --> 04:49.840 align:start position:0%
climate change. It's a natural part of
 

04:49.840 --> 04:51.470 align:start position:0%
climate change. It's a natural part of
our<00:04:49.960><c> planet,</c><00:04:50.680><c> a</c><00:04:50.800><c> heartbeat</c><00:04:51.200><c> that's</c><00:04:51.320><c> been</c>

04:51.470 --> 04:51.480 align:start position:0%
our planet, a heartbeat that's been
 

04:51.480 --> 04:54.070 align:start position:0%
our planet, a heartbeat that's been
thumping<00:04:51.840><c> for</c><00:04:51.960><c> at</c><00:04:52.040><c> least</c><00:04:52.400><c> 10,000</c><00:04:53.320><c> years.</c><00:04:54.000><c> I</c>

04:54.070 --> 04:54.080 align:start position:0%
thumping for at least 10,000 years. I
 

04:54.080 --> 04:55.430 align:start position:0%
thumping for at least 10,000 years. I
mean,<00:04:54.240><c> we</c><00:04:54.360><c> have</c><00:04:54.520><c> evidence</c><00:04:54.880><c> of</c><00:04:55.040><c> ENSO's</c>

04:55.430 --> 04:55.440 align:start position:0%
mean, we have evidence of ENSO's
 

04:55.440 --> 04:57.190 align:start position:0%
mean, we have evidence of ENSO's
chemical<00:04:55.840><c> fingerprints</c><00:04:56.320><c> in</c><00:04:56.440><c> ancient</c><00:04:56.840><c> coral</c>

04:57.190 --> 04:57.200 align:start position:0%
chemical fingerprints in ancient coral
 

04:57.200 --> 04:58.950 align:start position:0%
chemical fingerprints in ancient coral
fossils<00:04:57.560><c> and</c><00:04:57.760><c> sediment</c><00:04:58.240><c> cores</c><00:04:58.600><c> stretching</c>

04:58.950 --> 04:58.960 align:start position:0%
fossils and sediment cores stretching
 

04:58.960 --> 05:00.990 align:start position:0%
fossils and sediment cores stretching
back<00:04:59.200><c> long</c><00:04:59.440><c> before</c><00:04:59.720><c> the</c><00:04:59.840><c> first</c><00:05:00.280><c> steam</c><00:05:00.680><c> engine</c>

05:00.990 --> 05:01.000 align:start position:0%
back long before the first steam engine
 

05:01.000 --> 05:03.150 align:start position:0%
back long before the first steam engine
was<00:05:01.120><c> even</c><00:05:01.360><c> built.</c><00:05:02.240><c> But</c><00:05:02.320><c> this</c><00:05:02.600><c> year</c><00:05:02.800><c> feels</c>

05:03.150 --> 05:03.160 align:start position:0%
was even built. But this year feels
 

05:03.160 --> 05:05.990 align:start position:0%
was even built. But this year feels
different.<00:05:03.919><c> Something</c><00:05:04.640><c> sinister</c><00:05:05.280><c> is</c><00:05:05.600><c> brewing</c>

05:05.990 --> 05:06.000 align:start position:0%
different. Something sinister is brewing
 

05:06.000 --> 05:07.790 align:start position:0%
different. Something sinister is brewing
out<00:05:06.200><c> there,</c><00:05:06.440><c> and</c><00:05:06.520><c> it's</c><00:05:06.760><c> starting</c><00:05:07.400><c> to</c><00:05:07.560><c> look</c>

05:07.790 --> 05:07.800 align:start position:0%
out there, and it's starting to look
 

05:07.800 --> 05:10.470 align:start position:0%
out there, and it's starting to look
very<00:05:08.040><c> much</c><00:05:08.800><c> like</c><00:05:09.040><c> we're</c><00:05:09.200><c> heading</c><00:05:09.560><c> for</c><00:05:09.720><c> a</c><00:05:09.800><c> super</c>

05:10.470 --> 05:10.480 align:start position:0%
very much like we're heading for a super
 

05:10.480 --> 05:11.909 align:start position:0%
very much like we're heading for a super
El<00:05:10.680><c> Niño.</c>

05:11.909 --> 05:11.919 align:start position:0%
El Niño.
 

05:11.919 --> 05:13.430 align:start position:0%
El Niño.
Now,<00:05:12.080><c> it's</c><00:05:12.160><c> some</c><00:05:12.360><c> housekeeping</c><00:05:12.880><c> here</c><00:05:13.080><c> on</c><00:05:13.240><c> what</c>

05:13.430 --> 05:13.440 align:start position:0%
Now, it's some housekeeping here on what
 

05:13.440 --> 05:15.830 align:start position:0%
Now, it's some housekeeping here on what
actually<00:05:13.800><c> constitutes</c><00:05:14.680><c> a</c><00:05:14.800><c> super</c><00:05:15.360><c> El</c><00:05:15.600><c> Niño</c>

05:15.830 --> 05:15.840 align:start position:0%
actually constitutes a super El Niño
 

05:15.840 --> 05:16.830 align:start position:0%
actually constitutes a super El Niño
because<00:05:16.080><c> I'll</c><00:05:16.160><c> be</c><00:05:16.240><c> honest</c><00:05:16.440><c> with</c><00:05:16.600><c> you,</c><00:05:16.680><c> if</c><00:05:16.760><c> you</c>

05:16.830 --> 05:16.840 align:start position:0%
because I'll be honest with you, if you
 

05:16.840 --> 05:19.310 align:start position:0%
because I'll be honest with you, if you
ask<00:05:17.040><c> a</c><00:05:17.120><c> scientist,</c><00:05:17.560><c> that</c><00:05:17.800><c> term</c><00:05:18.720><c> well,</c><00:05:18.840><c> doesn't</c>

05:19.310 --> 05:19.320 align:start position:0%
ask a scientist, that term well, doesn't
 

05:19.320 --> 05:21.190 align:start position:0%
ask a scientist, that term well, doesn't
actually<00:05:19.800><c> exist,</c><00:05:20.560><c> but</c><00:05:20.640><c> it</c><00:05:20.720><c> does</c><00:05:20.840><c> make</c><00:05:21.040><c> for</c><00:05:21.120><c> a</c>

05:21.190 --> 05:21.200 align:start position:0%
actually exist, but it does make for a
 

05:21.200 --> 05:23.230 align:start position:0%
actually exist, but it does make for a
good<00:05:21.320><c> media</c><00:05:21.600><c> headline</c><00:05:22.160><c> and</c><00:05:22.520><c> title</c><00:05:22.919><c> on</c><00:05:23.040><c> this</c>

05:23.230 --> 05:23.240 align:start position:0%
good media headline and title on this
 

05:23.240 --> 05:24.630 align:start position:0%
good media headline and title on this
thumbnail.

05:24.630 --> 05:24.640 align:start position:0%
thumbnail.
 

05:24.640 --> 05:25.950 align:start position:0%
thumbnail.
NOAA,<00:05:25.080><c> who</c><00:05:25.240><c> are</c><00:05:25.280><c> the</c><00:05:25.360><c> people</c><00:05:25.680><c> right</c><00:05:25.800><c> on</c><00:05:25.880><c> the</c>

05:25.950 --> 05:25.960 align:start position:0%
NOAA, who are the people right on the
 

05:25.960 --> 05:27.790 align:start position:0%
NOAA, who are the people right on the
forefront<00:05:26.320><c> of</c><00:05:26.400><c> this</c><00:05:26.520><c> stuff,</c><00:05:26.800><c> monitor</c><00:05:27.280><c> El</c><00:05:27.440><c> Niño</c>

05:27.790 --> 05:27.800 align:start position:0%
forefront of this stuff, monitor El Niño
 

05:27.800 --> 05:29.909 align:start position:0%
forefront of this stuff, monitor El Niño
with<00:05:27.960><c> a</c><00:05:28.040><c> measure</c><00:05:28.400><c> called</c><00:05:28.640><c> the</c><00:05:28.800><c> Oceanic</c><00:05:29.400><c> Niño</c>

05:29.909 --> 05:29.919 align:start position:0%
with a measure called the Oceanic Niño
 

05:29.919 --> 05:32.990 align:start position:0%
with a measure called the Oceanic Niño
Index<00:05:30.600><c> or</c><00:05:30.840><c> ONI.</c><00:05:31.680><c> It's</c><00:05:31.800><c> basically</c><00:05:32.120><c> a</c><00:05:32.240><c> 3-month</c>

05:32.990 --> 05:33.000 align:start position:0%
Index or ONI. It's basically a 3-month
 

05:33.000 --> 05:34.710 align:start position:0%
Index or ONI. It's basically a 3-month
running<00:05:33.320><c> mean</c><00:05:33.560><c> of</c><00:05:33.720><c> sea</c><00:05:33.919><c> surface</c><00:05:34.280><c> temperature</c>

05:34.710 --> 05:34.720 align:start position:0%
running mean of sea surface temperature
 

05:34.720 --> 05:37.870 align:start position:0%
running mean of sea surface temperature
relative<00:05:35.160><c> to</c><00:05:35.320><c> a</c><00:05:35.440><c> 30-year</c><00:05:36.400><c> base.</c><00:05:37.160><c> So,</c><00:05:37.320><c> El</c><00:05:37.480><c> Niño</c>

05:37.870 --> 05:37.880 align:start position:0%
relative to a 30-year base. So, El Niño
 

05:37.880 --> 05:39.790 align:start position:0%
relative to a 30-year base. So, El Niño
is<00:05:38.000><c> declared,</c><00:05:38.400><c> as</c><00:05:38.560><c> we</c><00:05:38.680><c> said,</c><00:05:38.919><c> when</c><00:05:39.040><c> that</c><00:05:39.320><c> ONI</c>

05:39.790 --> 05:39.800 align:start position:0%
is declared, as we said, when that ONI
 

05:39.800 --> 05:42.270 align:start position:0%
is declared, as we said, when that ONI
goes<00:05:40.120><c> above</c><00:05:40.680><c> 0.5°C</c>

05:42.270 --> 05:42.280 align:start position:0%
goes above 0.5°C
 

05:42.280 --> 05:45.750 align:start position:0%
goes above 0.5°C
for<00:05:42.560><c> five</c><00:05:43.120><c> or</c><00:05:43.280><c> more</c><00:05:43.919><c> overlapping</c><00:05:44.600><c> seasons.</c>

05:45.750 --> 05:45.760 align:start position:0%
for five or more overlapping seasons.
 

05:45.760 --> 05:46.870 align:start position:0%
for five or more overlapping seasons.
And<00:05:46.000><c> just</c><00:05:46.120><c> to</c><00:05:46.200><c> make</c><00:05:46.320><c> things</c><00:05:46.480><c> a</c><00:05:46.520><c> bit</c><00:05:46.680><c> more</c>

05:46.870 --> 05:46.880 align:start position:0%
And just to make things a bit more
 

05:46.880 --> 05:48.590 align:start position:0%
And just to make things a bit more
complicated,<00:05:47.600><c> NOAA</c><00:05:47.800><c> recently</c><00:05:48.160><c> changed</c><00:05:48.440><c> to</c><00:05:48.560><c> a</c>

05:48.590 --> 05:48.600 align:start position:0%
complicated, NOAA recently changed to a
 

05:48.600 --> 05:50.750 align:start position:0%
complicated, NOAA recently changed to a
new<00:05:48.880><c> kind</c><00:05:49.320><c> of</c><00:05:49.520><c> measuring</c><00:05:49.920><c> index</c><00:05:50.320><c> called</c><00:05:50.560><c> the</c>

05:50.750 --> 05:50.760 align:start position:0%
new kind of measuring index called the
 

05:50.760 --> 05:53.350 align:start position:0%
new kind of measuring index called the
relative<00:05:51.440><c> ONI</c><00:05:52.120><c> index</c><00:05:52.600><c> to</c><00:05:52.720><c> account</c><00:05:53.160><c> for</c>

05:53.350 --> 05:53.360 align:start position:0%
relative ONI index to account for
 

05:53.360 --> 05:55.390 align:start position:0%
relative ONI index to account for
increased<00:05:54.080><c> background</c><00:05:54.640><c> warming,</c><00:05:54.920><c> which</c><00:05:55.160><c> it</c>

05:55.390 --> 05:55.400 align:start position:0%
increased background warming, which it
 

05:55.400 --> 05:57.190 align:start position:0%
increased background warming, which it
didn't<00:05:55.760><c> previously.</c>

05:57.190 --> 05:57.200 align:start position:0%
didn't previously.
 

05:57.200 --> 05:59.950 align:start position:0%
didn't previously.
So,<00:05:57.800><c> within</c><00:05:58.160><c> this</c><00:05:58.400><c> new</c><00:05:58.720><c> way</c><00:05:58.960><c> of</c><00:05:59.120><c> measuring</c><00:05:59.600><c> how</c>

05:59.950 --> 05:59.960 align:start position:0%
So, within this new way of measuring how
 

05:59.960 --> 06:02.830 align:start position:0%
So, within this new way of measuring how
strong<00:06:00.400><c> an</c><00:06:00.520><c> El</c><00:06:00.640><c> Niño</c><00:06:01.040><c> actually</c><00:06:01.680><c> is,</c><00:06:02.560><c> they</c>

06:02.830 --> 06:02.840 align:start position:0%
strong an El Niño actually is, they
 

06:02.840 --> 06:07.270 align:start position:0%
strong an El Niño actually is, they
class<00:06:03.360><c> a</c><00:06:03.560><c> weak</c><00:06:04.040><c> one</c><00:06:04.520><c> as</c><00:06:04.760><c> between</c><00:06:05.160><c> 0.5</c><00:06:06.160><c> and</c><00:06:06.440><c> 1°</c>

06:07.270 --> 06:07.280 align:start position:0%
class a weak one as between 0.5 and 1°
 

06:07.280 --> 06:08.270 align:start position:0%
class a weak one as between 0.5 and 1°
C,

06:08.270 --> 06:08.280 align:start position:0%
C,
 

06:08.280 --> 06:10.870 align:start position:0%
C,
a<00:06:08.440><c> moderate</c><00:06:09.000><c> one</c><00:06:09.240><c> would</c><00:06:09.360><c> be</c><00:06:09.480><c> between</c><00:06:10.040><c> 1</c><00:06:10.560><c> and</c>

06:10.870 --> 06:10.880 align:start position:0%
a moderate one would be between 1 and
 

06:10.880 --> 06:13.030 align:start position:0%
a moderate one would be between 1 and
1.5°<00:06:12.040><c> C,</c>

06:13.030 --> 06:13.040 align:start position:0%
1.5° C,
 

06:13.040 --> 06:18.390 align:start position:0%
1.5° C,
and<00:06:13.240><c> a</c><00:06:13.360><c> strong</c><00:06:13.960><c> El</c><00:06:14.160><c> Niño</c><00:06:14.960><c> is</c><00:06:15.160><c> 1.5</c><00:06:16.080><c> to</c><00:06:16.280><c> 2°</c><00:06:17.360><c> C.</c>

06:18.390 --> 06:18.400 align:start position:0%
and a strong El Niño is 1.5 to 2° C.
 

06:18.400 --> 06:20.190 align:start position:0%
and a strong El Niño is 1.5 to 2° C.
So,<00:06:18.600><c> therefore,</c><00:06:19.080><c> with</c><00:06:19.200><c> a</c><00:06:19.240><c> bit</c><00:06:19.400><c> of</c><00:06:19.600><c> creative</c>

06:20.190 --> 06:20.200 align:start position:0%
So, therefore, with a bit of creative
 

06:20.200 --> 06:23.110 align:start position:0%
So, therefore, with a bit of creative
license,<00:06:20.760><c> a</c><00:06:20.919><c> super</c><00:06:21.720><c> El</c><00:06:21.960><c> Niño</c><00:06:22.800><c> would</c><00:06:22.919><c> be</c>

06:23.110 --> 06:23.120 align:start position:0%
license, a super El Niño would be
 

06:23.120 --> 06:24.909 align:start position:0%
license, a super El Niño would be
somewhere<00:06:23.720><c> 2°</c><00:06:24.360><c> C</c>

06:24.909 --> 06:24.919 align:start position:0%
somewhere 2° C
 

06:24.919 --> 06:27.950 align:start position:0%
somewhere 2° C
above<00:06:25.560><c> average</c><00:06:26.080><c> or</c><00:06:26.280><c> more.</c><00:06:27.160><c> And</c><00:06:27.400><c> despite</c><00:06:27.800><c> not</c>

06:27.950 --> 06:27.960 align:start position:0%
above average or more. And despite not
 

06:27.960 --> 06:30.670 align:start position:0%
above average or more. And despite not
having<00:06:28.240><c> a</c><00:06:28.320><c> proper</c><00:06:28.640><c> term</c><00:06:29.080><c> for</c><00:06:29.280><c> it,</c><00:06:29.880><c> that</c><00:06:30.440><c> has</c>

06:30.670 --> 06:30.680 align:start position:0%
having a proper term for it, that has
 

06:30.680 --> 06:32.550 align:start position:0%
having a proper term for it, that has
happened<00:06:31.200><c> before.</c>

06:32.550 --> 06:32.560 align:start position:0%
happened before.
 

06:32.560 --> 06:34.909 align:start position:0%
happened before.
In<00:06:32.680><c> fact,</c><00:06:32.919><c> it's</c><00:06:33.000><c> happened</c><00:06:33.320><c> four</c><00:06:33.760><c> times</c><00:06:34.480><c> since</c>

06:34.909 --> 06:34.919 align:start position:0%
In fact, it's happened four times since
 

06:34.919 --> 06:36.924 align:start position:0%
In fact, it's happened four times since
NOAA<00:06:35.160><c> started</c><00:06:35.600><c> these</c><00:06:35.800><c> measurements</c><00:06:36.560><c> in</c><00:06:36.680><c> 1982,</c>

06:36.924 --> 06:36.934 align:start position:0%
NOAA started these measurements in 1982,
 

06:36.934 --> 06:37.710 align:start position:0%
NOAA started these measurements in 1982,
[music]

06:37.710 --> 06:37.720 align:start position:0%
[music]
 

06:37.720 --> 06:42.990 align:start position:0%
[music]
1991,<00:06:38.800><c> 1997,</c><00:06:39.919><c> and</c><00:06:40.080><c> most</c><00:06:40.320><c> recently</c><00:06:41.160><c> in</c><00:06:41.320><c> 2015.</c>

06:42.990 --> 06:43.000 align:start position:0%
1991, 1997, and most recently in 2015.
 

06:43.000 --> 06:45.990 align:start position:0%
1991, 1997, and most recently in 2015.
In<00:06:43.240><c> every</c><00:06:43.680><c> single</c><00:06:44.280><c> case,</c><00:06:44.720><c> each</c><00:06:45.120><c> relative</c><00:06:45.600><c> ONI</c>

06:45.990 --> 06:46.000 align:start position:0%
In every single case, each relative ONI
 

06:46.000 --> 06:49.430 align:start position:0%
In every single case, each relative ONI
rating<00:06:46.440><c> was</c><00:06:46.640><c> more</c><00:06:47.360><c> than</c><00:06:47.560><c> 2°</c><00:06:48.600><c> C.</c>

06:49.430 --> 06:49.440 align:start position:0%
rating was more than 2° C.
 

06:49.440 --> 06:52.030 align:start position:0%
rating was more than 2° C.
And<00:06:49.560><c> in</c><00:06:49.640><c> November</c><00:06:50.040><c> 2015,</c><00:06:51.400><c> the</c><00:06:51.520><c> index</c><00:06:51.840><c> was</c><00:06:51.960><c> a</c>

06:52.030 --> 06:52.040 align:start position:0%
And in November 2015, the index was a
 

06:52.040 --> 06:54.710 align:start position:0%
And in November 2015, the index was a
whopping<00:06:52.520><c> 2.4°</c>

06:54.710 --> 06:54.720 align:start position:0%
whopping 2.4°
 

06:54.720 --> 06:55.909 align:start position:0%
whopping 2.4°
C.

06:55.909 --> 06:55.919 align:start position:0%
C.
 

06:55.919 --> 06:58.190 align:start position:0%
C.
That's<00:06:56.520><c> That's</c><00:06:56.760><c> more</c><00:06:56.960><c> than</c><00:06:57.160><c> strong.</c><00:06:58.000><c> I</c><00:06:58.040><c> mean,</c>

06:58.190 --> 06:58.200 align:start position:0%
That's That's more than strong. I mean,
 

06:58.200 --> 06:59.790 align:start position:0%
That's That's more than strong. I mean,
that<00:06:58.480><c> rating</c><00:06:58.800><c> was</c><00:06:58.919><c> looking</c><00:06:59.160><c> for</c><00:06:59.280><c> a</c><00:06:59.360><c> phone</c>

06:59.790 --> 06:59.800 align:start position:0%
that rating was looking for a phone
 

06:59.800 --> 07:01.750 align:start position:0%
that rating was looking for a phone
booth<00:07:00.000><c> to</c><00:07:00.120><c> take</c><00:07:00.320><c> off</c><00:07:00.440><c> its</c><00:07:00.600><c> glasses</c><00:07:01.120><c> and</c><00:07:01.480><c> don</c><00:07:01.680><c> a</c>

07:01.750 --> 07:01.760 align:start position:0%
booth to take off its glasses and don a
 

07:01.760 --> 07:03.870 align:start position:0%
booth to take off its glasses and don a
superhero<00:07:02.480><c> cape</c><00:07:02.800><c> with.</c>

07:03.870 --> 07:03.880 align:start position:0%
superhero cape with.
 

07:03.880 --> 07:05.350 align:start position:0%
superhero cape with.
In<00:07:04.040><c> all</c><00:07:04.120><c> seriousness,</c><00:07:04.600><c> though,</c><00:07:04.720><c> these</c><00:07:05.040><c> giant</c>

07:05.350 --> 07:05.360 align:start position:0%
In all seriousness, though, these giant
 

07:05.360 --> 07:08.230 align:start position:0%
In all seriousness, though, these giant
events<00:07:05.760><c> have</c><00:07:06.080><c> globe-spanning</c><00:07:07.080><c> consequences.</c>

07:08.230 --> 07:08.240 align:start position:0%
events have globe-spanning consequences.
 

07:08.240 --> 07:10.790 align:start position:0%
events have globe-spanning consequences.
The<00:07:08.360><c> 2015</c><00:07:09.120><c> El</c><00:07:09.280><c> Niño</c><00:07:09.600><c> coincided</c><00:07:10.240><c> with</c><00:07:10.400><c> severe</c>

07:10.790 --> 07:10.800 align:start position:0%
The 2015 El Niño coincided with severe
 

07:10.800 --> 07:13.550 align:start position:0%
The 2015 El Niño coincided with severe
drought<00:07:11.320><c> in</c><00:07:11.520><c> Ethiopia,</c><00:07:12.400><c> water</c><00:07:12.720><c> shortages</c><00:07:13.320><c> in</c>

07:13.550 --> 07:13.560 align:start position:0%
drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in
 

07:13.560 --> 07:16.150 align:start position:0%
drought in Ethiopia, water shortages in
Puerto<00:07:13.880><c> Rico,</c><00:07:14.680><c> and</c><00:07:14.840><c> extraordinary</c><00:07:15.680><c> Central</c>

07:16.150 --> 07:16.160 align:start position:0%
Puerto Rico, and extraordinary Central
 

07:16.160 --> 07:18.830 align:start position:0%
Puerto Rico, and extraordinary Central
Pacific<00:07:16.680><c> hurricane</c><00:07:17.240><c> season,</c><00:07:17.600><c> all</c><00:07:17.840><c> combining</c>

07:18.830 --> 07:18.840 align:start position:0%
Pacific hurricane season, all combining
 

07:18.840 --> 07:21.830 align:start position:0%
Pacific hurricane season, all combining
to<00:07:18.960><c> produce</c><00:07:19.360><c> record</c><00:07:20.000><c> global</c><00:07:20.600><c> warmth.</c><00:07:21.720><c> More</c>

07:21.830 --> 07:21.840 align:start position:0%
to produce record global warmth. More
 

07:21.840 --> 07:24.430 align:start position:0%
to produce record global warmth. More
than<00:07:22.080><c> 60</c><00:07:22.560><c> million</c><00:07:22.960><c> people</c><00:07:23.360><c> were</c><00:07:23.480><c> affected</c>

07:24.430 --> 07:24.440 align:start position:0%
than 60 million people were affected
 

07:24.440 --> 07:26.710 align:start position:0%
than 60 million people were affected
with<00:07:24.560><c> extreme</c><00:07:25.160><c> food</c><00:07:25.520><c> insecurity</c><00:07:26.200><c> primarily</c>

07:26.710 --> 07:26.720 align:start position:0%
with extreme food insecurity primarily
 

07:26.720 --> 07:28.750 align:start position:0%
with extreme food insecurity primarily
across<00:07:27.160><c> Africa,</c><00:07:27.720><c> Central</c><00:07:28.080><c> America,</c><00:07:28.560><c> and</c><00:07:28.680><c> the</c>

07:28.750 --> 07:28.760 align:start position:0%
across Africa, Central America, and the
 

07:28.760 --> 07:30.510 align:start position:0%
across Africa, Central America, and the
Pacific.<00:07:29.760><c> It</c><00:07:29.919><c> triggered</c><00:07:30.200><c> the</c><00:07:30.280><c> most</c>

07:30.510 --> 07:30.520 align:start position:0%
Pacific. It triggered the most
 

07:30.520 --> 07:32.909 align:start position:0%
Pacific. It triggered the most
devastating<00:07:31.240><c> global</c><00:07:31.840><c> coral</c><00:07:32.200><c> bleaching</c><00:07:32.560><c> event</c>

07:32.909 --> 07:32.919 align:start position:0%
devastating global coral bleaching event
 

07:32.919 --> 07:35.590 align:start position:0%
devastating global coral bleaching event
in<00:07:33.160><c> history.</c><00:07:34.360><c> And</c><00:07:34.480><c> the</c><00:07:34.560><c> impacts</c><00:07:35.040><c> weren't</c><00:07:35.400><c> just</c>

07:35.590 --> 07:35.600 align:start position:0%
in history. And the impacts weren't just
 

07:35.600 --> 07:39.190 align:start position:0%
in history. And the impacts weren't just
felt<00:07:35.919><c> environmentally.</c><00:07:37.200><c> $3.9</c><00:07:38.000><c> trillion</c><00:07:38.640><c> was</c>

07:39.190 --> 07:39.200 align:start position:0%
felt environmentally. $3.9 trillion was
 

07:39.200 --> 07:40.870 align:start position:0%
felt environmentally. $3.9 trillion was
wiped<00:07:39.600><c> from</c><00:07:39.760><c> the</c><00:07:39.840><c> global</c><00:07:40.200><c> economy</c><00:07:40.680><c> in</c><00:07:40.760><c> the</c>

07:40.870 --> 07:40.880 align:start position:0%
wiped from the global economy in the
 

07:40.880 --> 07:43.190 align:start position:0%
wiped from the global economy in the
following<00:07:41.320><c> 3</c><00:07:41.720><c> years</c><00:07:42.400><c> due</c><00:07:42.560><c> to</c><00:07:42.680><c> the</c><00:07:42.840><c> lost</c>

07:43.190 --> 07:43.200 align:start position:0%
following 3 years due to the lost
 

07:43.200 --> 07:44.550 align:start position:0%
following 3 years due to the lost
agricultural<00:07:43.800><c> productivity</c><00:07:44.440><c> and</c>

07:44.550 --> 07:44.560 align:start position:0%
agricultural productivity and
 

07:44.560 --> 07:47.790 align:start position:0%
agricultural productivity and
infrastructure<00:07:45.200><c> damages.</c>

07:45.085 --> 07:48.275 align:start position:0%
description as we head back to super El
Nino.

07:48.275 --> 07:48.285 align:start position:0%
 
 

07:48.285 --> 07:51.315 align:start position:0%
 
So,<00:09:13.320><c> is</c><00:09:13.560><c> history</c><00:09:14.040><c> about</c><00:09:14.360><c> to</c><00:09:14.440><c> repeat</c><00:09:14.760><c> itself</c>

07:51.315 --> 07:51.325 align:start position:0%
So, is history about to repeat itself
 

07:51.325 --> 07:52.755 align:start position:0%
So, is history about to repeat itself
again?

07:52.755 --> 07:52.765 align:start position:0%
again?
 

07:52.765 --> 07:55.235 align:start position:0%
again?
As<00:09:17.280><c> of</c><00:09:17.560><c> early</c><00:09:17.800><c> 2026</c><00:09:18.720><c> the</c><00:09:18.839><c> tropical</c><00:09:19.240><c> Pacific</c>

07:55.235 --> 07:55.245 align:start position:0%
As of early 2026 the tropical Pacific
 

07:55.245 --> 07:57.835 align:start position:0%
As of early 2026 the tropical Pacific
returned<00:09:20.040><c> to</c><00:09:20.120><c> an</c><00:09:20.280><c> ENSO</c><00:09:20.839><c> neutral</c><00:09:21.400><c> state</c><00:09:21.839><c> after</c>

07:57.835 --> 07:57.845 align:start position:0%
returned to an ENSO neutral state after
 

07:57.845 --> 07:59.795 align:start position:0%
returned to an ENSO neutral state after
that<00:09:22.400><c> weak</c><00:09:22.600><c> El</c><00:09:22.680><c> Nino</c><00:09:22.960><c> we</c><00:09:23.080><c> spoke</c><00:09:23.400><c> about,</c><00:09:23.960><c> but</c>

07:59.795 --> 07:59.805 align:start position:0%
that weak El Nino we spoke about, but
 

07:59.805 --> 08:01.795 align:start position:0%
that weak El Nino we spoke about, but
don't<00:09:24.360><c> be</c><00:09:24.520><c> fooled</c><00:09:24.880><c> because</c><00:09:25.200><c> that's</c><00:09:25.560><c> just</c><00:09:25.880><c> on</c>

08:01.795 --> 08:01.805 align:start position:0%
don't be fooled because that's just on
 

08:01.805 --> 08:04.875 align:start position:0%
don't be fooled because that's just on
the<00:09:26.320><c> surface.</c><00:09:27.320><c> It's</c><00:09:27.520><c> what's</c><00:09:27.760><c> brewing</c><00:09:28.120><c> below</c>

08:04.875 --> 08:04.885 align:start position:0%
the surface. It's what's brewing below
 

08:04.885 --> 08:07.155 align:start position:0%
the surface. It's what's brewing below
that's<00:09:29.440><c> starting</c><00:09:29.880><c> to</c><00:09:30.000><c> ring</c><00:09:30.160><c> alarm</c><00:09:30.480><c> bells.</c>

08:07.155 --> 08:07.165 align:start position:0%
that's starting to ring alarm bells.
 

08:07.165 --> 08:09.474 align:start position:0%
that's starting to ring alarm bells.
NOAA<00:09:31.760><c> reports</c><00:09:32.160><c> that</c><00:09:32.400><c> ocean</c><00:09:32.839><c> subsurface</c><00:09:33.560><c> heat</c>

08:09.474 --> 08:09.484 align:start position:0%
NOAA reports that ocean subsurface heat
 

08:09.484 --> 08:11.675 align:start position:0%
NOAA reports that ocean subsurface heat
content<00:09:34.360><c> has</c><00:09:34.520><c> been</c><00:09:34.680><c> climbing</c><00:09:35.120><c> for</c><00:09:35.440><c> months</c><00:09:35.920><c> and</c>

08:11.675 --> 08:11.685 align:start position:0%
content has been climbing for months and
 

08:11.685 --> 08:14.915 align:start position:0%
content has been climbing for months and
is<00:09:36.160><c> now</c><00:09:36.560><c> well</c><00:09:37.120><c> above</c><00:09:37.760><c> normal.</c><00:09:38.640><c> In</c><00:09:38.800><c> March</c><00:09:39.120><c> to</c>

08:14.915 --> 08:14.925 align:start position:0%
is now well above normal. In March to
 

08:14.925 --> 08:16.795 align:start position:0%
is now well above normal. In March to
April<00:09:39.640><c> 2026,</c>

08:16.795 --> 08:16.805 align:start position:0%
April 2026,
 

08:16.805 --> 08:18.755 align:start position:0%
April 2026,
meteorologists<00:09:41.920><c> observed</c><00:09:42.440><c> bursts</c><00:09:42.920><c> of</c>

08:18.755 --> 08:18.765 align:start position:0%
meteorologists observed bursts of
 

08:18.765 --> 08:21.155 align:start position:0%
meteorologists observed bursts of
westerly<00:09:43.600><c> winds</c><00:09:43.960><c> driving</c><00:09:44.760><c> warm</c><00:09:45.040><c> water</c>

08:21.155 --> 08:21.165 align:start position:0%
westerly winds driving warm water
 

08:21.165 --> 08:23.875 align:start position:0%
westerly winds driving warm water
eastward,<00:09:46.080><c> a</c><00:09:46.200><c> classic</c><00:09:46.680><c> precursor</c><00:09:47.800><c> to</c><00:09:48.040><c> El</c>

08:23.875 --> 08:23.885 align:start position:0%
eastward, a classic precursor to El
 

08:23.885 --> 08:26.355 align:start position:0%
eastward, a classic precursor to El
Niño.<00:09:49.200><c> Now,</c><00:09:49.400><c> usually</c><00:09:49.760><c> Pacific</c><00:09:50.160><c> trade</c><00:09:50.440><c> winds</c>

08:26.355 --> 08:26.365 align:start position:0%
Niño. Now, usually Pacific trade winds
 

08:26.365 --> 08:28.795 align:start position:0%
Niño. Now, usually Pacific trade winds
are<00:09:51.040><c> easterly,</c><00:09:51.680><c> holding</c><00:09:52.240><c> warm</c><00:09:52.520><c> water</c><00:09:52.840><c> in</c><00:09:53.000><c> the</c>

08:28.795 --> 08:28.805 align:start position:0%
are easterly, holding warm water in the
 

08:28.805 --> 08:32.035 align:start position:0%
are easterly, holding warm water in the
west,<00:09:54.080><c> but</c><00:09:54.280><c> those</c><00:09:54.560><c> winds</c><00:09:54.880><c> are</c><00:09:55.080><c> faltering.</c><00:09:56.200><c> As</c>

08:32.035 --> 08:32.045 align:start position:0%
west, but those winds are faltering. As
 

08:32.045 --> 08:34.355 align:start position:0%
west, but those winds are faltering. As
they<00:09:56.520><c> weaken,</c><00:09:56.920><c> a</c><00:09:57.040><c> series</c><00:09:57.480><c> of</c><00:09:57.680><c> Kelvin</c><00:09:58.240><c> waves,</c>

08:34.355 --> 08:34.365 align:start position:0%
they weaken, a series of Kelvin waves,
 

08:34.365 --> 08:36.475 align:start position:0%
they weaken, a series of Kelvin waves,
massive<00:09:59.160><c> pulses</c><00:09:59.560><c> of</c><00:09:59.760><c> warm</c><00:09:59.960><c> water,</c><00:10:00.720><c> are</c>

08:36.475 --> 08:36.485 align:start position:0%
massive pulses of warm water, are
 

08:36.485 --> 08:38.635 align:start position:0%
massive pulses of warm water, are
traveling<00:10:01.320><c> thousands</c><00:10:01.920><c> of</c><00:10:02.000><c> miles</c><00:10:02.360><c> across</c><00:10:02.800><c> the</c>

08:38.635 --> 08:38.645 align:start position:0%
traveling thousands of miles across the
 

08:38.645 --> 08:40.635 align:start position:0%
traveling thousands of miles across the
ocean.<00:10:03.920><c> And</c><00:10:04.080><c> when</c><00:10:04.240><c> they</c><00:10:04.400><c> hit</c><00:10:04.600><c> the</c><00:10:04.720><c> South</c>

08:40.635 --> 08:40.645 align:start position:0%
ocean. And when they hit the South
 

08:40.645 --> 08:43.115 align:start position:0%
ocean. And when they hit the South
American<00:10:05.520><c> coast,</c><00:10:05.920><c> they</c><00:10:06.040><c> sort</c><00:10:06.240><c> of</c><00:10:06.480><c> uncork</c><00:10:07.360><c> the</c>

08:43.115 --> 08:43.125 align:start position:0%
American coast, they sort of uncork the
 

08:43.125 --> 08:45.035 align:start position:0%
American coast, they sort of uncork the
heat,<00:10:08.200><c> and</c><00:10:08.400><c> suddenly</c><00:10:08.720><c> you've</c><00:10:08.840><c> got</c><00:10:09.080><c> all</c><00:10:09.200><c> this</c>

08:45.035 --> 08:45.045 align:start position:0%
heat, and suddenly you've got all this
 

08:45.045 --> 08:46.915 align:start position:0%
heat, and suddenly you've got all this
energy<00:10:09.760><c> just</c><00:10:09.960><c> sat</c><00:10:10.200><c> there</c><00:10:10.480><c> waiting</c><00:10:10.960><c> to</c><00:10:11.080><c> be</c>

08:46.915 --> 08:46.925 align:start position:0%
energy just sat there waiting to be
 

08:46.925 --> 08:49.595 align:start position:0%
energy just sat there waiting to be
unleashed.<00:10:12.280><c> In</c><00:10:12.480><c> fact,</c><00:10:13.040><c> NASA</c><00:10:13.480><c> have</c><00:10:13.680><c> just</c>

08:49.595 --> 08:49.605 align:start position:0%
unleashed. In fact, NASA have just
 

08:49.605 --> 08:51.435 align:start position:0%
unleashed. In fact, NASA have just
caught<00:10:14.320><c> one</c><00:10:14.480><c> of</c><00:10:14.600><c> these</c><00:10:14.840><c> Kelvin</c><00:10:15.200><c> waves</c><00:10:15.520><c> in</c>

08:51.435 --> 08:51.445 align:start position:0%
caught one of these Kelvin waves in
 

08:51.445 --> 08:54.075 align:start position:0%
caught one of these Kelvin waves in
action<00:10:16.560><c> with</c><00:10:16.680><c> the</c><00:10:16.800><c> Sentinel-6</c><00:10:17.840><c> Michael</c>

08:54.075 --> 08:54.085 align:start position:0%
action with the Sentinel-6 Michael
 

08:54.085 --> 08:56.835 align:start position:0%
action with the Sentinel-6 Michael
Freilich<00:10:19.040><c> satellite.</c><00:10:20.320><c> You</c><00:10:20.440><c> can</c><00:10:20.640><c> clearly</c><00:10:21.000><c> see</c>

08:56.835 --> 08:56.845 align:start position:0%
Freilich satellite. You can clearly see
 

08:56.845 --> 08:59.475 align:start position:0%
Freilich satellite. You can clearly see
it<00:10:21.360><c> cross</c><00:10:21.720><c> the</c><00:10:21.840><c> Pacific</c><00:10:22.320><c> Ocean</c><00:10:22.760><c> and</c><00:10:22.960><c> hit</c><00:10:23.720><c> the</c>

08:59.475 --> 08:59.485 align:start position:0%
it cross the Pacific Ocean and hit the
 

08:59.485 --> 09:02.275 align:start position:0%
it cross the Pacific Ocean and hit the
South<00:10:24.280><c> American</c><00:10:24.960><c> coast.</c><00:10:25.880><c> But,</c><00:10:26.160><c> here's</c><00:10:26.480><c> the</c>

09:02.275 --> 09:02.285 align:start position:0%
South American coast. But, here's the
 

09:02.285 --> 09:04.315 align:start position:0%
South American coast. But, here's the
catch.<00:10:27.480><c> Because</c><00:10:27.760><c> on</c><00:10:27.840><c> top</c><00:10:28.000><c> of</c><00:10:28.080><c> the</c><00:10:28.200><c> natural</c>

09:04.315 --> 09:04.325 align:start position:0%
catch. Because on top of the natural
 

09:04.325 --> 09:06.715 align:start position:0%
catch. Because on top of the natural
cycle<00:10:29.200><c> happening,</c><00:10:29.800><c> this</c><00:10:30.160><c> time</c><00:10:30.840><c> we're</c>

09:06.715 --> 09:06.725 align:start position:0%
cycle happening, this time we're
 

09:06.725 --> 09:09.355 align:start position:0%
cycle happening, this time we're
layering<00:10:31.480><c> a</c><00:10:31.560><c> natural</c><00:10:32.160><c> surge</c><00:10:32.760><c> onto</c><00:10:33.200><c> a</c><00:10:33.280><c> planet</c>

09:09.355 --> 09:09.365 align:start position:0%
layering a natural surge onto a planet
 

09:09.365 --> 09:11.635 align:start position:0%
layering a natural surge onto a planet
that's<00:10:33.960><c> already</c><00:10:34.360><c> spent</c><00:10:34.720><c> 12</c><00:10:35.160><c> consecutive</c>

09:11.635 --> 09:11.645 align:start position:0%
that's already spent 12 consecutive
 

09:11.645 --> 09:15.755 align:start position:0%
that's already spent 12 consecutive
months<00:10:36.280><c> above</c><00:10:37.320><c> the</c><00:10:37.480><c> 1.5°</c><00:10:38.600><c> warming</c><00:10:39.000><c> threshold.</c>

09:15.755 --> 09:15.765 align:start position:0%
months above the 1.5° warming threshold.
 

09:15.765 --> 09:18.275 align:start position:0%
months above the 1.5° warming threshold.
2024<00:10:40.800><c> was</c><00:10:40.920><c> the</c><00:10:41.120><c> hottest</c><00:10:41.680><c> year</c><00:10:41.960><c> on</c><00:10:42.160><c> record,</c><00:10:42.520><c> and</c>

09:18.275 --> 09:18.285 align:start position:0%
2024 was the hottest year on record, and
 

09:18.285 --> 09:20.355 align:start position:0%
2024 was the hottest year on record, and
it<00:10:42.720><c> occurred</c><00:10:43.680><c> during</c><00:10:43.872><c> [music]</c><00:10:43.920><c> an</c><00:10:44.080><c> ENSO</c>

09:20.355 --> 09:20.365 align:start position:0%
it occurred during [music] an ENSO
 

09:20.365 --> 09:22.675 align:start position:0%
it occurred during [music] an ENSO
neutral<00:10:45.400><c> year.</c><00:10:45.680><c> There</c><00:10:45.880><c> was</c><00:10:46.160><c> no</c><00:10:46.400><c> extra</c><00:10:46.720><c> heating</c>

09:22.675 --> 09:22.685 align:start position:0%
neutral year. There was no extra heating
 

09:22.685 --> 09:25.275 align:start position:0%
neutral year. There was no extra heating
boost<00:10:47.360><c> from</c><00:10:47.720><c> El</c><00:10:47.880><c> Niño.</c><00:10:48.920><c> So,</c><00:10:49.040><c> before</c><00:10:49.320><c> we</c><00:10:49.440><c> even</c>

09:25.275 --> 09:25.285 align:start position:0%
boost from El Niño. So, before we even
 

09:25.285 --> 09:27.155 align:start position:0%
boost from El Niño. So, before we even
add<00:10:49.800><c> in</c><00:10:50.000><c> a</c><00:10:50.080><c> naturally</c><00:10:50.560><c> occurring</c><00:10:50.960><c> event</c><00:10:51.320><c> that</c>

09:27.155 --> 09:27.165 align:start position:0%
add in a naturally occurring event that
 

09:27.165 --> 09:29.195 align:start position:0%
add in a naturally occurring event that
increases<00:10:52.200><c> temperatures,</c>

09:29.195 --> 09:29.205 align:start position:0%
increases temperatures,
 

09:29.205 --> 09:31.035 align:start position:0%
increases temperatures,
we're<00:10:53.680><c> already</c><00:10:53.920><c> working</c><00:10:54.280><c> with</c><00:10:54.400><c> a</c><00:10:54.480><c> much</c><00:10:55.080><c> higher</c>

09:31.035 --> 09:31.045 align:start position:0%
we're already working with a much higher
 

09:31.045 --> 09:33.555 align:start position:0%
we're already working with a much higher
baseline,<00:10:56.080><c> and</c><00:10:56.480><c> that's</c><00:10:56.720><c> a</c><00:10:56.760><c> problem.</c>

09:33.555 --> 09:33.565 align:start position:0%
baseline, and that's a problem.
 

09:33.565 --> 09:35.555 align:start position:0%
baseline, and that's a problem.
It's<00:10:58.040><c> a</c><00:10:58.080><c> bit</c><00:10:58.200><c> like</c><00:10:58.440><c> a</c><00:10:58.560><c> loaded</c><00:10:59.120><c> spring.</c><00:10:59.600><c> That</c>

09:35.555 --> 09:35.565 align:start position:0%
It's a bit like a loaded spring. That
 

09:35.565 --> 09:37.875 align:start position:0%
It's a bit like a loaded spring. That
heat<00:11:00.360><c> hasn't</c><00:11:00.880><c> fully</c><00:11:01.200><c> reached</c><00:11:01.520><c> the</c><00:11:01.640><c> surface</c>

09:37.875 --> 09:37.885 align:start position:0%
heat hasn't fully reached the surface
 

09:37.885 --> 09:40.635 align:start position:0%
heat hasn't fully reached the surface
yet,<00:11:02.480><c> but</c><00:11:02.760><c> when</c><00:11:02.960><c> it</c><00:11:03.120><c> does,</c><00:11:03.880><c> it</c><00:11:04.040><c> can</c><00:11:04.400><c> rapidly</c>

09:40.635 --> 09:40.645 align:start position:0%
yet, but when it does, it can rapidly
 

09:40.645 --> 09:43.275 align:start position:0%
yet, but when it does, it can rapidly
trigger<00:11:05.400><c> El</c><00:11:05.560><c> Niño</c><00:11:06.000><c> conditions.</c><00:11:07.160><c> The</c><00:11:07.280><c> scary</c>

09:43.275 --> 09:43.285 align:start position:0%
trigger El Niño conditions. The scary
 

09:43.285 --> 09:45.474 align:start position:0%
trigger El Niño conditions. The scary
thing<00:11:07.839><c> is</c><00:11:07.960><c> that</c><00:11:08.160><c> exact</c><00:11:08.800><c> same</c><00:11:09.120><c> pattern</c><00:11:09.560><c> showed</c>

09:45.474 --> 09:45.484 align:start position:0%
thing is that exact same pattern showed
 

09:45.484 --> 09:48.635 align:start position:0%
thing is that exact same pattern showed
up<00:11:09.960><c> before</c><00:11:10.200><c> the</c><00:11:10.320><c> 1997</c><00:11:11.400><c> and</c><00:11:11.600><c> 2015</c><00:11:12.400><c> super</c><00:11:12.839><c> El</c>

09:48.635 --> 09:48.645 align:start position:0%
up before the 1997 and 2015 super El
 

09:48.645 --> 09:50.435 align:start position:0%
up before the 1997 and 2015 super El
Niños,<00:11:13.720><c> too.</c>

09:50.435 --> 09:50.445 align:start position:0%
Niños, too.
 

09:50.445 --> 09:53.195 align:start position:0%
Niños, too.
So,<00:11:14.960><c> the</c><00:11:15.080><c> big</c><00:11:15.280><c> question</c><00:11:15.680><c> is</c><00:11:15.839><c> then,</c><00:11:16.480><c> how</c><00:11:16.760><c> big</c><00:11:17.400><c> is</c>

09:53.195 --> 09:53.205 align:start position:0%
So, the big question is then, how big is
 

09:53.205 --> 09:54.915 align:start position:0%
So, the big question is then, how big is
this<00:11:17.800><c> one</c><00:11:17.960><c> going</c><00:11:18.120><c> to</c><00:11:18.200><c> be?</c>

09:54.915 --> 09:54.925 align:start position:0%
this one going to be?
 

09:54.925 --> 09:56.675 align:start position:0%
this one going to be?
Well,<00:11:19.440><c> for</c><00:11:19.560><c> starters,</c><00:11:20.200><c> NOAA's</c><00:11:20.720><c> Climate</c>

09:56.675 --> 09:56.685 align:start position:0%
Well, for starters, NOAA's Climate
 

09:56.685 --> 09:58.635 align:start position:0%
Well, for starters, NOAA's Climate
Prediction<00:11:21.520><c> Center</c><00:11:21.880><c> has</c><00:11:22.080><c> placed</c><00:11:22.360><c> the</c><00:11:22.560><c> odds</c><00:11:22.839><c> of</c>

09:58.635 --> 09:58.645 align:start position:0%
Prediction Center has placed the odds of
 

09:58.645 --> 10:02.635 align:start position:0%
Prediction Center has placed the odds of
El<00:11:23.200><c> Niño</c><00:11:23.560><c> emerging</c><00:11:24.120><c> by</c><00:11:24.280><c> July</c><00:11:24.920><c> at</c><00:11:25.240><c> 82%</c>

10:02.635 --> 10:02.645 align:start position:0%
El Niño emerging by July at 82%
 

10:02.645 --> 10:05.835 align:start position:0%
El Niño emerging by July at 82%
with<00:11:27.120><c> a</c><00:11:27.200><c> 37%</c><00:11:28.320><c> chance</c><00:11:28.640><c> of</c><00:11:28.800><c> a</c><00:11:28.920><c> very</c><00:11:29.440><c> strong</c><00:11:29.960><c> El</c>

10:05.835 --> 10:05.845 align:start position:0%
with a 37% chance of a very strong El
 

10:05.845 --> 10:08.875 align:start position:0%
with a 37% chance of a very strong El
Niño<00:11:30.920><c> by</c><00:11:31.120><c> winter</c><00:11:31.440><c> 2026.</c>

10:08.875 --> 10:08.885 align:start position:0%
Niño by winter 2026.
 

10:08.885 --> 10:11.395 align:start position:0%
Niño by winter 2026.
The<00:11:33.360><c> UK</c><00:11:33.800><c> and</c><00:11:34.000><c> European</c><00:11:34.520><c> estimates</c><00:11:34.960><c> are</c><00:11:35.520><c> how</c><00:11:35.640><c> do</c>

10:11.395 --> 10:11.405 align:start position:0%
The UK and European estimates are how do
 

10:11.405 --> 10:13.915 align:start position:0%
The UK and European estimates are how do
I<00:11:35.800><c> put</c><00:11:36.000><c> this?</c><00:11:36.680><c> A</c><00:11:36.760><c> little</c><00:11:36.920><c> more</c><00:11:37.160><c> aggressive.</c>

10:13.915 --> 10:13.925 align:start position:0%
I put this? A little more aggressive.
 

10:13.925 --> 10:16.515 align:start position:0%
I put this? A little more aggressive.
Met<00:11:38.560><c> Office</c><00:11:38.760><c> data</c><00:11:39.040><c> here</c><00:11:39.200><c> in</c><00:11:39.280><c> the</c><00:11:39.360><c> UK</c><00:11:39.720><c> shows</c><00:11:40.120><c> 2°</c>

10:16.515 --> 10:16.525 align:start position:0%
Met Office data here in the UK shows 2°
 

10:16.525 --> 10:20.275 align:start position:0%
Met Office data here in the UK shows 2°
C<00:11:41.360><c> anomalies</c><00:11:41.800><c> by</c><00:11:42.080><c> September</c><00:11:42.720><c> 2026.</c>

10:20.275 --> 10:20.285 align:start position:0%
C anomalies by September 2026.
 

10:20.285 --> 10:22.795 align:start position:0%
C anomalies by September 2026.
And<00:11:44.800><c> the</c><00:11:44.960><c> ECMWF,</c><00:11:46.280><c> the</c><00:11:46.400><c> European</c><00:11:46.760><c> Centre</c><00:11:47.000><c> for</c>

10:22.795 --> 10:22.805 align:start position:0%
And the ECMWF, the European Centre for
 

10:22.805 --> 10:24.995 align:start position:0%
And the ECMWF, the European Centre for
Medium-Range<00:11:47.800><c> Weather</c><00:11:48.040><c> Forecast,</c><00:11:48.960><c> shows</c>

10:24.995 --> 10:25.005 align:start position:0%
Medium-Range Weather Forecast, shows
 

10:25.005 --> 10:27.035 align:start position:0%
Medium-Range Weather Forecast, shows
there<00:11:49.480><c> is</c><00:11:49.600><c> a</c><00:11:49.720><c> chance</c><00:11:50.720><c> of</c><00:11:50.920><c> temperature</c>

10:27.035 --> 10:27.045 align:start position:0%
there is a chance of temperature
 

10:27.045 --> 10:31.395 align:start position:0%
there is a chance of temperature
anomalies<00:11:51.840><c> exceeding</c><00:11:52.680><c> 3°</c><00:11:54.000><c> before</c><00:11:54.640><c> October,</c>

10:31.395 --> 10:31.405 align:start position:0%
anomalies exceeding 3° before October,
 

10:31.405 --> 10:35.075 align:start position:0%
anomalies exceeding 3° before October,
taking<00:11:56.160><c> us</c><00:11:56.400><c> well</c><00:11:56.800><c> into</c><00:11:57.520><c> super</c><00:11:58.120><c> territory.</c>

10:35.075 --> 10:35.085 align:start position:0%
taking us well into super territory.
 

10:35.085 --> 10:36.795 align:start position:0%
taking us well into super territory.
Indeed,<00:12:00.000><c> on</c><00:12:00.120><c> the</c><00:12:00.280><c> other</c><00:12:00.480><c> side</c><00:12:00.680><c> of</c><00:12:00.760><c> the</c><00:12:00.840><c> scale</c>

10:36.795 --> 10:36.805 align:start position:0%
Indeed, on the other side of the scale
 

10:36.805 --> 10:40.035 align:start position:0%
Indeed, on the other side of the scale
to<00:12:01.400><c> NOAA,</c><00:12:01.880><c> according</c><00:12:02.400><c> to</c><00:12:02.520><c> the</c><00:12:02.680><c> ECMWF,</c>

10:40.035 --> 10:40.045 align:start position:0%
to NOAA, according to the ECMWF,
 

10:40.045 --> 10:43.235 align:start position:0%
to NOAA, according to the ECMWF,
the<00:12:04.600><c> odds</c><00:12:04.840><c> of</c><00:12:04.960><c> a</c><00:12:05.080><c> super</c><00:12:05.680><c> El</c><00:12:05.880><c> Nino</c><00:12:06.280><c> by</c><00:12:06.520><c> July</c><00:12:07.360><c> have</c>

10:43.235 --> 10:43.245 align:start position:0%
the odds of a super El Nino by July have
 

10:43.245 --> 10:46.315 align:start position:0%
the odds of a super El Nino by July have
already<00:12:07.960><c> climbed</c><00:12:08.320><c> beyond</c><00:12:09.080><c> 50%.</c>

10:46.315 --> 10:46.325 align:start position:0%
already climbed beyond 50%.
 

10:46.325 --> 10:48.835 align:start position:0%
already climbed beyond 50%.
And<00:12:11.000><c> as</c><00:12:11.160><c> we</c><00:12:11.280><c> approach</c><00:12:11.760><c> winter,</c><00:12:12.480><c> its</c><00:12:12.680><c> emergence</c>

10:48.835 --> 10:48.845 align:start position:0%
And as we approach winter, its emergence
 

10:48.845 --> 10:51.155 align:start position:0%
And as we approach winter, its emergence
appears<00:12:13.960><c> inevitable.</c>

10:51.155 --> 10:51.165 align:start position:0%
appears inevitable.
 

10:51.165 --> 10:52.435 align:start position:0%
appears inevitable.
Just<00:12:15.720><c> a</c><00:12:15.760><c> quick</c><00:12:16.000><c> word</c><00:12:16.200><c> of</c><00:12:16.280><c> caution</c><00:12:16.600><c> here</c><00:12:16.680><c> when</c>

10:52.435 --> 10:52.445 align:start position:0%
Just a quick word of caution here when
 

10:52.445 --> 10:54.235 align:start position:0%
Just a quick word of caution here when
it<00:12:16.880><c> comes</c><00:12:17.120><c> to</c><00:12:17.200><c> data</c><00:12:17.680><c> and</c><00:12:17.840><c> modeling.</c><00:12:18.240><c> I</c><00:12:18.320><c> know</c>

10:54.235 --> 10:54.245 align:start position:0%
it comes to data and modeling. I know
 

10:54.245 --> 10:55.275 align:start position:0%
it comes to data and modeling. I know
you<00:12:18.720><c> know</c><00:12:18.840><c> this,</c><00:12:19.000><c> but</c><00:12:19.080><c> I</c><00:12:19.120><c> just</c><00:12:19.280><c> have</c><00:12:19.400><c> to</c><00:12:19.480><c> sort</c>

10:55.275 --> 10:55.285 align:start position:0%
you know this, but I just have to sort
 

10:55.285 --> 10:57.355 align:start position:0%
you know this, but I just have to sort
of<00:12:19.920><c> say</c><00:12:20.160><c> it.</c><00:12:20.360><c> Forecasters</c><00:12:21.160><c> do</c><00:12:21.360><c> note</c><00:12:21.600><c> that</c>

10:57.355 --> 10:57.365 align:start position:0%
of say it. Forecasters do note that
 

10:57.365 --> 10:59.195 align:start position:0%
of say it. Forecasters do note that
models<00:12:22.040><c> tend</c><00:12:22.320><c> to</c><00:12:22.440><c> overshoot</c><00:12:23.080><c> El</c><00:12:23.200><c> Nino</c>

10:59.195 --> 10:59.205 align:start position:0%
models tend to overshoot El Nino
 

10:59.205 --> 11:00.595 align:start position:0%
models tend to overshoot El Nino
strength<00:12:23.920><c> in</c><00:12:24.000><c> the</c><00:12:24.080><c> spring,</c><00:12:24.400><c> and</c><00:12:24.520><c> the</c><00:12:24.600><c> outcome</c>

11:00.595 --> 11:00.605 align:start position:0%
strength in the spring, and the outcome
 

11:00.605 --> 11:02.315 align:start position:0%
strength in the spring, and the outcome
actually<00:12:25.240><c> depends</c><00:12:25.640><c> on</c><00:12:26.200><c> whether</c><00:12:26.440><c> those</c>

11:02.315 --> 11:02.325 align:start position:0%
actually depends on whether those
 

11:02.325 --> 11:04.355 align:start position:0%
actually depends on whether those
westerly<00:12:27.120><c> winds</c><00:12:27.520><c> continue</c><00:12:28.320><c> what</c><00:12:28.560><c> they're</c>

11:04.355 --> 11:04.365 align:start position:0%
westerly winds continue what they're
 

11:04.365 --> 11:05.635 align:start position:0%
westerly winds continue what they're
doing.<00:12:29.040><c> But</c><00:12:29.280><c> because</c><00:12:29.560><c> they're</c><00:12:29.680><c> doing</c><00:12:29.880><c> it</c>

11:05.635 --> 11:05.645 align:start position:0%
doing. But because they're doing it
 

11:05.645 --> 11:07.235 align:start position:0%
doing. But because they're doing it
right<00:12:30.240><c> now,</c><00:12:30.440><c> that's</c><00:12:31.080><c> that's</c><00:12:31.320><c> where</c><00:12:31.440><c> these</c>

11:07.235 --> 11:07.245 align:start position:0%
right now, that's that's where these
 

11:07.245 --> 11:09.115 align:start position:0%
right now, that's that's where these
numbers<00:12:31.840><c> come</c><00:12:32.000><c> from.</c><00:12:32.640><c> However</c><00:12:32.920><c> you</c><00:12:33.080><c> choose</c><00:12:33.400><c> to</c>

11:09.115 --> 11:09.125 align:start position:0%
numbers come from. However you choose to
 

11:09.125 --> 11:10.515 align:start position:0%
numbers come from. However you choose to
interpret<00:12:33.920><c> those</c><00:12:34.080><c> numbers</c><00:12:34.320><c> is</c><00:12:34.480><c> up</c><00:12:34.720><c> to</c><00:12:34.800><c> you,</c>

11:10.515 --> 11:10.525 align:start position:0%
interpret those numbers is up to you,
 

11:10.525 --> 11:12.155 align:start position:0%
interpret those numbers is up to you,
but<00:12:35.120><c> what</c><00:12:35.320><c> I</c><00:12:35.360><c> think</c><00:12:35.520><c> we</c><00:12:35.640><c> can</c><00:12:35.960><c> deduce</c><00:12:36.360><c> for</c>

11:12.155 --> 11:12.165 align:start position:0%
but what I think we can deduce for
 

11:12.165 --> 11:14.235 align:start position:0%
but what I think we can deduce for
certain<00:12:37.440><c> is</c><00:12:37.560><c> that</c><00:12:37.680><c> the</c><00:12:37.760><c> environment</c><00:12:38.360><c> is</c>

11:14.235 --> 11:14.245 align:start position:0%
certain is that the environment is
 

11:14.245 --> 11:17.195 align:start position:0%
certain is that the environment is
primed<00:12:39.680><c> for</c><00:12:39.839><c> a</c><00:12:39.920><c> strong</c><00:12:40.240><c> event.</c>

11:17.195 --> 11:17.205 align:start position:0%
primed for a strong event.
 

11:17.205 --> 11:19.075 align:start position:0%
primed for a strong event.
So,<00:12:41.920><c> if</c><00:12:42.080><c> we</c><00:12:42.200><c> do</c><00:12:42.320><c> end</c><00:12:42.480><c> up</c><00:12:42.600><c> with</c><00:12:42.720><c> the</c><00:12:42.839><c> fabled</c>

11:19.075 --> 11:19.085 align:start position:0%
So, if we do end up with the fabled
 

11:19.085 --> 11:21.474 align:start position:0%
So, if we do end up with the fabled
super<00:12:43.920><c> El</c><00:12:44.080><c> Nino,</c><00:12:45.240><c> well,</c><00:12:45.320><c> what</c><00:12:45.440><c> does</c><00:12:45.520><c> that</c><00:12:45.680><c> mean</c>

11:21.474 --> 11:21.484 align:start position:0%
super El Nino, well, what does that mean
 

11:21.484 --> 11:22.795 align:start position:0%
super El Nino, well, what does that mean
for<00:12:46.040><c> us?</c>

11:22.795 --> 11:22.805 align:start position:0%
for us?
 

11:22.805 --> 11:26.035 align:start position:0%
for us?
The<00:12:47.280><c> short</c><00:12:47.600><c> answer</c><00:12:47.839><c> is</c><00:12:48.160><c> amplified</c><00:12:49.080><c> extremes.</c>

11:26.035 --> 11:26.045 align:start position:0%
The short answer is amplified extremes.
 

11:26.045 --> 11:28.195 align:start position:0%
The short answer is amplified extremes.
All<00:12:50.600><c> the</c><00:12:50.760><c> usual</c><00:12:51.160><c> El</c><00:12:51.280><c> Nino</c><00:12:51.600><c> effects</c><00:12:51.960><c> would</c><00:12:52.080><c> be</c>

11:28.195 --> 11:28.205 align:start position:0%
All the usual El Nino effects would be
 

11:28.205 --> 11:29.915 align:start position:0%
All the usual El Nino effects would be
supercharged.<00:12:53.680><c> It'd</c><00:12:53.760><c> be</c><00:12:53.839><c> like</c><00:12:54.000><c> driving</c>

11:29.915 --> 11:29.925 align:start position:0%
supercharged. It'd be like driving
 

11:29.925 --> 11:31.155 align:start position:0%
supercharged. It'd be like driving
around<00:12:54.440><c> in</c><00:12:54.520><c> your</c><00:12:54.640><c> car</c><00:12:54.960><c> playing</c><00:12:55.160><c> your</c><00:12:55.240><c> music</c>

11:31.155 --> 11:31.165 align:start position:0%
around in your car playing your music
 

11:31.165 --> 11:33.115 align:start position:0%
around in your car playing your music
with<00:12:55.600><c> your</c><00:12:55.760><c> bass</c><00:12:56.200><c> turned</c><00:12:56.520><c> up</c><00:12:56.640><c> to</c><00:12:56.760><c> maximum,</c><00:12:57.400><c> you</c>

11:33.115 --> 11:33.125 align:start position:0%
with your bass turned up to maximum, you
 

11:33.125 --> 11:34.115 align:start position:0%
with your bass turned up to maximum, you
know?

11:34.115 --> 11:34.125 align:start position:0%
know?
 

11:34.125 --> 11:35.755 align:start position:0%
know?
The<00:12:58.600><c> first</c><00:12:59.000><c> and</c><00:12:59.120><c> perhaps</c><00:12:59.400><c> most</c><00:12:59.640><c> obvious</c><00:12:59.960><c> thing</c>

11:35.755 --> 11:35.765 align:start position:0%
The first and perhaps most obvious thing
 

11:35.765 --> 11:37.235 align:start position:0%
The first and perhaps most obvious thing
we've<00:13:00.320><c> already</c><00:13:00.560><c> touched</c><00:13:00.880><c> on,</c><00:13:01.040><c> there</c><00:13:01.200><c> would</c><00:13:01.400><c> be</c>

11:37.235 --> 11:37.245 align:start position:0%
we've already touched on, there would be
 

11:37.245 --> 11:40.195 align:start position:0%
we've already touched on, there would be
a<00:13:01.720><c> record-breaking</c><00:13:02.920><c> global</c><00:13:03.400><c> heat</c><00:13:03.720><c> spike.</c>

11:40.195 --> 11:40.205 align:start position:0%
a record-breaking global heat spike.
 

11:40.205 --> 11:41.875 align:start position:0%
a record-breaking global heat spike.
Each<00:13:04.920><c> El</c><00:13:05.040><c> Nino</c><00:13:05.360><c> year</c><00:13:05.640><c> brings</c><00:13:06.000><c> hotter</c>

11:41.875 --> 11:41.885 align:start position:0%
Each El Nino year brings hotter
 

11:41.885 --> 11:43.915 align:start position:0%
Each El Nino year brings hotter
conditions<00:13:06.880><c> globally,</c><00:13:07.560><c> and</c><00:13:07.800><c> even</c><00:13:08.000><c> without</c>

11:43.915 --> 11:43.925 align:start position:0%
conditions globally, and even without
 

11:43.925 --> 11:45.435 align:start position:0%
conditions globally, and even without
the<00:13:08.360><c> help</c><00:13:08.600><c> of</c><00:13:08.680><c> all</c><00:13:08.760><c> the</c><00:13:08.880><c> extra</c><00:13:09.200><c> greenhouse</c><00:13:09.600><c> gas</c>

11:45.435 --> 11:45.445 align:start position:0%
the help of all the extra greenhouse gas
 

11:45.445 --> 11:47.275 align:start position:0%
the help of all the extra greenhouse gas
emissions,<00:13:10.400><c> we'd</c><00:13:10.680><c> usually</c><00:13:10.920><c> expect</c><00:13:11.360><c> somewhere</c>

11:47.275 --> 11:47.285 align:start position:0%
emissions, we'd usually expect somewhere
 

11:47.285 --> 11:49.915 align:start position:0%
emissions, we'd usually expect somewhere
in<00:13:11.720><c> the</c><00:13:11.760><c> region</c><00:13:12.080><c> of</c><00:13:12.240><c> 0.1</c><00:13:12.960><c> to</c><00:13:13.040><c> 0.2°</c><00:13:13.960><c> worth</c><00:13:14.160><c> of</c>

11:49.915 --> 11:49.925 align:start position:0%
in the region of 0.1 to 0.2° worth of
 

11:49.925 --> 11:52.955 align:start position:0%
in the region of 0.1 to 0.2° worth of
increase.<00:13:15.200><c> But</c><00:13:15.360><c> for</c><00:13:15.520><c> a</c><00:13:15.600><c> super</c><00:13:16.200><c> El</c><00:13:16.360><c> Nino,</c><00:13:17.200><c> well,</c>

11:52.955 --> 11:52.965 align:start position:0%
increase. But for a super El Nino, well,
 

11:52.965 --> 11:55.555 align:start position:0%
increase. But for a super El Nino, well,
that<00:13:17.520><c> could</c><00:13:17.640><c> put</c><00:13:17.839><c> temperatures</c><00:13:18.240><c> in</c><00:13:18.400><c> 2026-2027</c>

11:55.555 --> 11:55.565 align:start position:0%
that could put temperatures in 2026-2027
 

11:55.565 --> 11:57.635 align:start position:0%
that could put temperatures in 2026-2027
to<00:13:20.080><c> unprecedented</c><00:13:21.120><c> heights,</c><00:13:21.440><c> the</c><00:13:21.520><c> hottest</c>

11:57.635 --> 11:57.645 align:start position:0%
to unprecedented heights, the hottest
 

11:57.645 --> 12:00.755 align:start position:0%
to unprecedented heights, the hottest
years<00:13:22.680><c> on</c><00:13:23.120><c> record,</c><00:13:23.600><c> exceeding</c><00:13:24.040><c> 1.7,</c><00:13:24.920><c> even</c>

12:00.755 --> 12:00.765 align:start position:0%
years on record, exceeding 1.7, even
 

12:00.765 --> 12:05.035 align:start position:0%
years on record, exceeding 1.7, even
1.8°<00:13:26.040><c> above</c><00:13:27.040><c> pre-industrial</c><00:13:28.320><c> levels.</c><00:13:29.200><c> In</c><00:13:29.320><c> the</c>

12:05.035 --> 12:05.045 align:start position:0%
1.8° above pre-industrial levels. In the
 

12:05.045 --> 12:07.795 align:start position:0%
1.8° above pre-industrial levels. In the
most<00:13:29.720><c> extreme</c><00:13:30.280><c> scenarios,</c><00:13:31.400><c> sea</c><00:13:31.680><c> surface</c>

12:07.795 --> 12:07.805 align:start position:0%
most extreme scenarios, sea surface
 

12:07.805 --> 12:09.475 align:start position:0%
most extreme scenarios, sea surface
temperature<00:13:32.640><c> anomalies</c><00:13:33.160><c> in</c><00:13:33.240><c> the</c><00:13:33.360><c> Pacific</c>

12:09.475 --> 12:09.485 align:start position:0%
temperature anomalies in the Pacific
 

12:09.485 --> 12:12.955 align:start position:0%
temperature anomalies in the Pacific
region<00:13:34.520><c> approach</c><00:13:35.080><c> a</c><00:13:35.200><c> stark</c><00:13:35.760><c> 3.8°</c>

12:12.955 --> 12:12.965 align:start position:0%
region approach a stark 3.8°
 

12:12.965 --> 12:13.995 align:start position:0%
region approach a stark 3.8°
C

12:13.995 --> 12:14.005 align:start position:0%
C
 

12:14.005 --> 12:16.235 align:start position:0%
C
by<00:13:38.560><c> the</c><00:13:38.720><c> year</c><00:13:39.120><c> end.</c><00:13:39.920><c> And</c><00:13:40.040><c> when</c><00:13:40.160><c> you</c><00:13:40.240><c> consider</c>

12:16.235 --> 12:16.245 align:start position:0%
by the year end. And when you consider
 

12:16.245 --> 12:18.315 align:start position:0%
by the year end. And when you consider
that<00:13:40.720><c> the</c><00:13:40.840><c> IPCC</c><00:13:41.680><c> wanted</c><00:13:42.000><c> to</c><00:13:42.080><c> limit</c><00:13:42.320><c> warming</c><00:13:42.560><c> to</c>

12:18.315 --> 12:18.325 align:start position:0%
that the IPCC wanted to limit warming to
 

12:18.325 --> 12:21.395 align:start position:0%
that the IPCC wanted to limit warming to
just<00:13:42.920><c> 1.5°,</c><00:13:44.360><c> you</c><00:13:44.600><c> start</c><00:13:45.000><c> to</c><00:13:45.120><c> see</c><00:13:45.320><c> just</c><00:13:45.600><c> how</c>

12:21.395 --> 12:21.405 align:start position:0%
just 1.5°, you start to see just how
 

12:21.405 --> 12:24.195 align:start position:0%
just 1.5°, you start to see just how
extreme<00:13:46.480><c> this</c><00:13:46.800><c> really</c><00:13:47.120><c> is.</c><00:13:47.880><c> And</c><00:13:48.000><c> it's</c><00:13:48.200><c> not</c>

12:24.195 --> 12:24.205 align:start position:0%
extreme this really is. And it's not
 

12:24.205 --> 12:25.635 align:start position:0%
extreme this really is. And it's not
just<00:13:48.800><c> the</c><00:13:48.880><c> temperatures</c><00:13:49.440><c> we</c><00:13:49.600><c> should</c><00:13:49.880><c> be</c>

12:25.635 --> 12:25.645 align:start position:0%
just the temperatures we should be
 

12:25.645 --> 12:27.155 align:start position:0%
just the temperatures we should be
worrying<00:13:50.240><c> about,</c><00:13:50.520><c> either.</c>

12:27.155 --> 12:27.165 align:start position:0%
worrying about, either.
 

12:27.165 --> 12:28.795 align:start position:0%
worrying about, either.
There<00:13:51.640><c> will</c><00:13:51.760><c> be</c><00:13:51.880><c> a</c><00:13:52.000><c> series</c><00:13:52.560><c> of</c><00:13:52.640><c> extreme</c>

12:28.795 --> 12:28.805 align:start position:0%
There will be a series of extreme
 

12:28.805 --> 12:30.955 align:start position:0%
There will be a series of extreme
precipitation<00:13:53.960><c> patterns</c><00:13:54.360><c> in</c><00:13:54.560><c> every</c><00:13:54.960><c> corner</c>

12:30.955 --> 12:30.965 align:start position:0%
precipitation patterns in every corner
 

12:30.965 --> 12:33.515 align:start position:0%
precipitation patterns in every corner
of<00:13:55.520><c> the</c><00:13:55.640><c> planet.</c><00:13:56.520><c> A</c><00:13:56.680><c> super</c><00:13:57.160><c> El</c><00:13:57.360><c> Niño</c><00:13:57.720><c> would</c>

12:33.515 --> 12:33.525 align:start position:0%
of the planet. A super El Niño would
 

12:33.525 --> 12:35.355 align:start position:0%
of the planet. A super El Niño would
bring<00:13:58.120><c> torrential</c><00:13:58.680><c> rains</c><00:13:59.000><c> to</c><00:13:59.080><c> the</c><00:13:59.200><c> coast</c><00:13:59.560><c> of</c>

12:35.355 --> 12:35.365 align:start position:0%
bring torrential rains to the coast of
 

12:35.365 --> 12:38.675 align:start position:0%
bring torrential rains to the coast of
Peru<00:14:00.160><c> and</c><00:14:00.320><c> Ecuador,</c><00:14:01.120><c> but</c><00:14:01.480><c> inland,</c><00:14:02.480><c> the</c><00:14:02.640><c> Amazon</c>

12:38.675 --> 12:38.685 align:start position:0%
Peru and Ecuador, but inland, the Amazon
 

12:38.685 --> 12:41.115 align:start position:0%
Peru and Ecuador, but inland, the Amazon
rainforest<00:14:03.560><c> would</c><00:14:03.720><c> face</c><00:14:04.080><c> a</c><00:14:04.200><c> thermal</c><00:14:04.960><c> stress</c>

12:41.115 --> 12:41.125 align:start position:0%
rainforest would face a thermal stress
 

12:41.125 --> 12:44.035 align:start position:0%
rainforest would face a thermal stress
test.<00:14:06.280><c> By</c><00:14:06.480><c> combining</c><00:14:07.080><c> intense</c><00:14:07.520><c> drought</c><00:14:07.960><c> with</c>

12:44.035 --> 12:44.045 align:start position:0%
test. By combining intense drought with
 

12:44.045 --> 12:46.155 align:start position:0%
test. By combining intense drought with
record-breaking<00:14:09.200><c> temperatures,</c><00:14:10.120><c> trees</c>

12:46.155 --> 12:46.165 align:start position:0%
record-breaking temperatures, trees
 

12:46.165 --> 12:47.955 align:start position:0%
record-breaking temperatures, trees
would<00:14:10.640><c> be</c><00:14:10.800><c> pushed</c><00:14:11.200><c> beyond</c><00:14:11.560><c> their</c><00:14:11.720><c> tolerance</c>

12:47.955 --> 12:47.965 align:start position:0%
would be pushed beyond their tolerance
 

12:47.965 --> 12:49.235 align:start position:0%
would be pushed beyond their tolerance
limits.

12:49.235 --> 12:49.245 align:start position:0%
limits.
 

12:49.245 --> 12:51.235 align:start position:0%
limits.
Previous<00:14:14.200><c> super</c><00:14:14.560><c> El</c><00:14:14.680><c> Niños</c><00:14:15.080><c> have</c><00:14:15.240><c> seen</c><00:14:15.440><c> the</c>

12:51.235 --> 12:51.245 align:start position:0%
Previous super El Niños have seen the
 

12:51.245 --> 12:54.035 align:start position:0%
Previous super El Niños have seen the
Amazon<00:14:16.000><c> switch</c><00:14:16.440><c> from</c><00:14:16.560><c> a</c><00:14:16.640><c> carbon</c><00:14:17.200><c> sink</c><00:14:18.120><c> to</c><00:14:18.280><c> a</c>

12:54.035 --> 12:54.045 align:start position:0%
Amazon switch from a carbon sink to a
 

12:54.045 --> 12:56.795 align:start position:0%
Amazon switch from a carbon sink to a
carbon<00:14:19.000><c> source</c><00:14:20.000><c> as</c><00:14:20.200><c> drought</c><00:14:20.600><c> kills</c><00:14:20.920><c> off</c>

12:56.795 --> 12:56.805 align:start position:0%
carbon source as drought kills off
 

12:56.805 --> 12:59.755 align:start position:0%
carbon source as drought kills off
massive<00:14:21.840><c> swaths</c><00:14:22.400><c> of</c><00:14:22.520><c> the</c><00:14:22.640><c> canopy.</c>

12:59.755 --> 12:59.765 align:start position:0%
massive swaths of the canopy.
 

12:59.765 --> 13:01.915 align:start position:0%
massive swaths of the canopy.
In<00:14:24.280><c> 2026,</c><00:14:25.160><c> with</c><00:14:25.280><c> the</c><00:14:25.360><c> baseline</c><00:14:25.840><c> temperature</c>

13:01.915 --> 13:01.925 align:start position:0%
In 2026, with the baseline temperature
 

13:01.925 --> 13:04.875 align:start position:0%
In 2026, with the baseline temperature
already<00:14:26.720><c> higher,</c><00:14:27.560><c> the</c><00:14:27.680><c> risk</c><00:14:28.000><c> of</c><00:14:28.200><c> megafires</c><00:14:29.080><c> in</c>

13:04.875 --> 13:04.885 align:start position:0%
already higher, the risk of megafires in
 

13:04.885 --> 13:06.235 align:start position:0%
already higher, the risk of megafires in
the<00:14:29.320><c> world's</c><00:14:29.760><c> lungs</c><00:14:30.080><c> would</c><00:14:30.200><c> be</c><00:14:30.320><c> at</c><00:14:30.440><c> an</c>

13:06.235 --> 13:06.245 align:start position:0%
the world's lungs would be at an
 

13:06.245 --> 13:08.155 align:start position:0%
the world's lungs would be at an
all-time<00:14:31.320><c> high.</c>

13:08.155 --> 13:08.165 align:start position:0%
all-time high.
 

13:08.165 --> 13:09.875 align:start position:0%
all-time high.
In<00:14:32.680><c> North</c><00:14:32.960><c> America,</c><00:14:33.440><c> the</c><00:14:33.600><c> jet</c><00:14:33.880><c> stream</c><00:14:34.160><c> is</c>

13:09.875 --> 13:09.885 align:start position:0%
In North America, the jet stream is
 

13:09.885 --> 13:12.474 align:start position:0%
In North America, the jet stream is
expected<00:14:34.760><c> to</c><00:14:34.839><c> split,</c><00:14:35.680><c> so</c><00:14:35.800><c> the</c><00:14:35.920><c> US</c><00:14:36.280><c> Southwest</c>

13:12.474 --> 13:12.484 align:start position:0%
expected to split, so the US Southwest
 

13:12.484 --> 13:14.115 align:start position:0%
expected to split, so the US Southwest
and<00:14:37.040><c> California</c><00:14:37.720><c> would</c><00:14:37.839><c> get</c><00:14:37.960><c> a</c><00:14:38.000><c> sort</c><00:14:38.240><c> of</c>

13:14.115 --> 13:14.125 align:start position:0%
and California would get a sort of
 

13:14.125 --> 13:17.075 align:start position:0%
and California would get a sort of
Godzilla<00:14:39.200><c> winter</c><00:14:39.960><c> with</c><00:14:40.160><c> heavy</c><00:14:40.520><c> snowpack</c><00:14:41.200><c> and</c>

13:17.075 --> 13:17.085 align:start position:0%
Godzilla winter with heavy snowpack and
 

13:17.085 --> 13:19.395 align:start position:0%
Godzilla winter with heavy snowpack and
torrential<00:14:42.080><c> rains.</c><00:14:42.920><c> Now,</c><00:14:43.120><c> this</c><00:14:43.400><c> may</c><00:14:43.560><c> help</c>

13:19.395 --> 13:19.405 align:start position:0%
torrential rains. Now, this may help
 

13:19.405 --> 13:21.515 align:start position:0%
torrential rains. Now, this may help
relieve<00:14:44.120><c> reservoirs</c><00:14:44.640><c> in</c><00:14:44.800><c> the</c><00:14:44.920><c> short</c><00:14:45.320><c> term,</c>

13:21.515 --> 13:21.525 align:start position:0%
relieve reservoirs in the short term,
 

13:21.525 --> 13:23.115 align:start position:0%
relieve reservoirs in the short term,
but<00:14:46.000><c> it</c><00:14:46.120><c> brings</c><00:14:46.360><c> the</c><00:14:46.480><c> immediate</c><00:14:46.920><c> threat</c><00:14:47.280><c> of</c>

13:23.115 --> 13:23.125 align:start position:0%
but it brings the immediate threat of
 

13:23.125 --> 13:25.795 align:start position:0%
but it brings the immediate threat of
atmospheric<00:14:48.360><c> rivers,</c><00:14:49.160><c> long</c><00:14:49.440><c> plumes</c><00:14:49.760><c> of</c><00:14:49.880><c> water</c>

13:25.795 --> 13:25.805 align:start position:0%
atmospheric rivers, long plumes of water
 

13:25.805 --> 13:28.035 align:start position:0%
atmospheric rivers, long plumes of water
vapor<00:14:50.400><c> coming</c><00:14:50.680><c> in</c><00:14:50.800><c> from</c><00:14:50.960><c> the</c><00:14:51.080><c> tropics.</c><00:14:52.200><c> These</c>

13:28.035 --> 13:28.045 align:start position:0%
vapor coming in from the tropics. These
 

13:28.045 --> 13:29.515 align:start position:0%
vapor coming in from the tropics. These
events<00:14:52.640><c> can</c><00:14:52.760><c> trigger</c><00:14:53.040><c> catastrophic</c>

13:29.515 --> 13:29.525 align:start position:0%
events can trigger catastrophic
 

13:29.525 --> 13:32.635 align:start position:0%
events can trigger catastrophic
landslides<00:14:54.480><c> and</c><00:14:54.680><c> cause</c><00:14:55.120><c> localized</c><00:14:55.920><c> flooding.</c>

13:32.635 --> 13:32.645 align:start position:0%
landslides and cause localized flooding.
 

13:32.645 --> 13:34.155 align:start position:0%
landslides and cause localized flooding.
Meanwhile,<00:14:57.440><c> the</c><00:14:57.560><c> Pacific</c><00:14:57.920><c> Northwest</c><00:14:58.440><c> would</c>

13:34.155 --> 13:34.165 align:start position:0%
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest would
 

13:34.165 --> 13:36.115 align:start position:0%
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest would
experience<00:14:58.960><c> unusually</c><00:14:59.440><c> hot</c><00:14:59.839><c> and</c><00:15:00.080><c> dry</c>

13:36.115 --> 13:36.125 align:start position:0%
experience unusually hot and dry
 

13:36.125 --> 13:38.115 align:start position:0%
experience unusually hot and dry
conditions.<00:15:01.839><c> On</c><00:15:01.960><c> the</c><00:15:02.040><c> other</c><00:15:02.200><c> side</c><00:15:02.360><c> of</c><00:15:02.440><c> the</c>

13:38.115 --> 13:38.125 align:start position:0%
conditions. On the other side of the
 

13:38.125 --> 13:40.075 align:start position:0%
conditions. On the other side of the
world<00:15:02.720><c> in</c><00:15:02.800><c> Australia,</c><00:15:03.320><c> the</c><00:15:03.440><c> news</c><00:15:03.720><c> is</c><00:15:03.960><c> also</c>

13:40.075 --> 13:40.085 align:start position:0%
world in Australia, the news is also
 

13:40.085 --> 13:42.635 align:start position:0%
world in Australia, the news is also
sobering.<00:15:05.440><c> The</c><00:15:05.560><c> Bureau</c><00:15:05.960><c> of</c><00:15:06.080><c> Meteorology</c><00:15:06.760><c> has</c>

13:42.635 --> 13:42.645 align:start position:0%
sobering. The Bureau of Meteorology has
 

13:42.645 --> 13:45.115 align:start position:0%
sobering. The Bureau of Meteorology has
already<00:15:07.320><c> issued</c><00:15:07.720><c> a</c><00:15:07.839><c> below-average</c><00:15:09.000><c> rainfall</c>

13:45.115 --> 13:45.125 align:start position:0%
already issued a below-average rainfall
 

13:45.125 --> 13:46.715 align:start position:0%
already issued a below-average rainfall
forecast<00:15:10.040><c> for</c><00:15:10.160><c> the</c><00:15:10.360><c> eastern</c><00:15:10.839><c> and</c>

13:46.715 --> 13:46.725 align:start position:0%
forecast for the eastern and
 

13:46.725 --> 13:49.115 align:start position:0%
forecast for the eastern and
southwestern<00:15:11.800><c> parts</c><00:15:12.160><c> of</c><00:15:12.280><c> the</c><00:15:12.400><c> country,</c><00:15:13.360><c> and</c>

13:49.115 --> 13:49.125 align:start position:0%
southwestern parts of the country, and
 

13:49.125 --> 13:51.715 align:start position:0%
southwestern parts of the country, and
it's<00:15:13.640><c> not</c><00:15:13.920><c> just</c><00:15:14.160><c> the</c><00:15:14.240><c> lack</c><00:15:14.480><c> of</c><00:15:14.680><c> rain.</c><00:15:15.640><c> Farmers</c>

13:51.715 --> 13:51.725 align:start position:0%
it's not just the lack of rain. Farmers
 

13:51.725 --> 13:54.035 align:start position:0%
it's not just the lack of rain. Farmers
in<00:15:16.200><c> New</c><00:15:16.400><c> South</c><00:15:16.720><c> Wales</c><00:15:17.040><c> are</c><00:15:17.160><c> facing</c><00:15:17.560><c> a</c><00:15:17.680><c> perfect</c>

13:54.035 --> 13:54.045 align:start position:0%
in New South Wales are facing a perfect
 

13:54.045 --> 13:56.235 align:start position:0%
in New South Wales are facing a perfect
storm.<00:15:19.240><c> They're</c><00:15:19.440><c> still</c><00:15:19.839><c> recovering</c><00:15:20.400><c> from</c><00:15:20.520><c> the</c>

13:56.235 --> 13:56.245 align:start position:0%
storm. They're still recovering from the
 

13:56.245 --> 13:58.515 align:start position:0%
storm. They're still recovering from the
massive<00:15:21.080><c> floods</c><00:15:21.440><c> of</c><00:15:21.640><c> previous</c><00:15:22.240><c> years,</c><00:15:22.640><c> but</c>

13:58.515 --> 13:58.525 align:start position:0%
massive floods of previous years, but
 

13:58.525 --> 14:01.035 align:start position:0%
massive floods of previous years, but
now<00:15:23.800><c> they</c><00:15:23.920><c> could</c><00:15:24.080><c> be</c><00:15:24.200><c> hit</c><00:15:24.400><c> by</c><00:15:24.560><c> a</c><00:15:24.600><c> triad</c><00:15:25.240><c> of</c>

14:01.035 --> 14:01.045 align:start position:0%
now they could be hit by a triad of
 

14:01.045 --> 14:03.715 align:start position:0%
now they could be hit by a triad of
pressures,<00:15:26.280><c> intensifying</c><00:15:27.080><c> drought,</c><00:15:27.480><c> extreme</c>

14:03.715 --> 14:03.725 align:start position:0%
pressures, intensifying drought, extreme
 

14:03.725 --> 14:05.835 align:start position:0%
pressures, intensifying drought, extreme
bushfire<00:15:28.680><c> risk,</c><00:15:28.920><c> and</c><00:15:29.040><c> a</c><00:15:29.160><c> global</c><00:15:29.680><c> spike</c><00:15:30.040><c> in</c>

14:05.835 --> 14:05.845 align:start position:0%
bushfire risk, and a global spike in
 

14:05.845 --> 14:08.075 align:start position:0%
bushfire risk, and a global spike in
fertilizer<00:15:30.880><c> and</c><00:15:31.000><c> fuel</c><00:15:31.280><c> costs</c><00:15:32.000><c> all</c><00:15:32.200><c> thrown</c>

14:08.075 --> 14:08.085 align:start position:0%
fertilizer and fuel costs all thrown
 

14:08.085 --> 14:10.275 align:start position:0%
fertilizer and fuel costs all thrown
into<00:15:32.720><c> one.</c>

14:10.275 --> 14:10.285 align:start position:0%
into one.
 

14:10.285 --> 14:11.675 align:start position:0%
into one.
As<00:15:34.800><c> we</c><00:15:34.920><c> touched</c><00:15:35.200><c> on</c><00:15:35.320><c> earlier</c><00:15:35.640><c> as</c><00:15:35.760><c> well,</c><00:15:35.960><c> El</c>

14:11.675 --> 14:11.685 align:start position:0%
As we touched on earlier as well, El
 

14:11.685 --> 14:13.275 align:start position:0%
As we touched on earlier as well, El
Niño<00:15:36.320><c> does</c><00:15:36.560><c> something</c><00:15:36.960><c> strange</c><00:15:37.480><c> to</c>

14:13.275 --> 14:13.285 align:start position:0%
Niño does something strange to
 

14:13.285 --> 14:15.555 align:start position:0%
Niño does something strange to
traditional<00:15:38.320><c> hurricane</c><00:15:38.920><c> patterns.</c><00:15:39.280><c> [music]</c>

14:15.555 --> 14:15.565 align:start position:0%
traditional hurricane patterns. [music]
 

14:15.565 --> 14:17.435 align:start position:0%
traditional hurricane patterns. [music]
Generally,<00:15:40.560><c> it</c><00:15:40.720><c> tends</c><00:15:41.000><c> to</c><00:15:41.120><c> tilt</c><00:15:41.360><c> the</c><00:15:41.520><c> odds</c><00:15:41.720><c> of</c>

14:17.435 --> 14:17.445 align:start position:0%
Generally, it tends to tilt the odds of
 

14:17.445 --> 14:19.875 align:start position:0%
Generally, it tends to tilt the odds of
Pacific<00:15:42.280><c> cyclones</c><00:15:43.040><c> and</c><00:15:43.240><c> reduce</c><00:15:43.720><c> the</c><00:15:43.840><c> number</c>

14:19.875 --> 14:19.885 align:start position:0%
Pacific cyclones and reduce the number
 

14:19.885 --> 14:22.715 align:start position:0%
Pacific cyclones and reduce the number
of<00:15:44.520><c> Atlantic</c><00:15:45.120><c> hurricanes.</c><00:15:46.080><c> In</c><00:15:46.240><c> 2015,</c><00:15:46.960><c> for</c>

14:22.715 --> 14:22.725 align:start position:0%
of Atlantic hurricanes. In 2015, for
 

14:22.725 --> 14:24.515 align:start position:0%
of Atlantic hurricanes. In 2015, for
example,<00:15:47.560><c> during</c><00:15:47.760><c> the</c><00:15:47.880><c> strongest</c><00:15:48.440><c> El</c><00:15:48.560><c> Niño</c>

14:24.515 --> 14:24.525 align:start position:0%
example, during the strongest El Niño
 

14:24.525 --> 14:27.195 align:start position:0%
example, during the strongest El Niño
we've<00:15:49.200><c> ever</c><00:15:49.480><c> seen</c><00:15:49.840><c> so</c><00:15:50.120><c> far,</c><00:15:51.040><c> the</c><00:15:51.160><c> central</c>

14:27.195 --> 14:27.205 align:start position:0%
we've ever seen so far, the central
 

14:27.205 --> 14:29.675 align:start position:0%
we've ever seen so far, the central
Pacific<00:15:52.040><c> had</c><00:15:52.120><c> an</c><00:15:52.240><c> unusually</c><00:15:52.960><c> active</c><00:15:53.480><c> cyclone</c>

14:29.675 --> 14:29.685 align:start position:0%
Pacific had an unusually active cyclone
 

14:29.685 --> 14:32.635 align:start position:0%
Pacific had an unusually active cyclone
season.<00:15:54.840><c> In</c><00:15:55.000><c> total,</c><00:15:55.320><c> there</c><00:15:55.440><c> were</c><00:15:55.600><c> 16,</c>

14:32.635 --> 14:32.645 align:start position:0%
season. In total, there were 16,
 

14:32.645 --> 14:35.235 align:start position:0%
season. In total, there were 16,
including<00:15:57.400><c> three</c><00:15:57.880><c> simultaneous</c><00:15:59.000><c> category</c>

14:35.235 --> 14:35.245 align:start position:0%
including three simultaneous category
 

14:35.245 --> 14:37.835 align:start position:0%
including three simultaneous category
four<00:16:00.000><c> storms.</c><00:16:00.560><c> It</c><00:16:00.680><c> was</c><00:16:00.840><c> crazy.</c>

14:37.835 --> 14:37.845 align:start position:0%
four storms. It was crazy.
 

14:37.845 --> 14:40.555 align:start position:0%
four storms. It was crazy.
So,<00:16:02.360><c> a</c><00:16:02.440><c> 2026</c><00:16:03.440><c> super</c><00:16:03.880><c> El</c><00:16:04.040><c> Niño</c><00:16:04.360><c> would</c><00:16:04.560><c> likely</c>

14:40.555 --> 14:40.565 align:start position:0%
So, a 2026 super El Niño would likely
 

14:40.565 --> 14:42.795 align:start position:0%
So, a 2026 super El Niño would likely
mean,<00:16:05.200><c> yeah,</c><00:16:05.440><c> a</c><00:16:05.560><c> quieter</c><00:16:06.160><c> Atlantic</c><00:16:06.800><c> season,</c>

14:42.795 --> 14:42.805 align:start position:0%
mean, yeah, a quieter Atlantic season,
 

14:42.805 --> 14:44.315 align:start position:0%
mean, yeah, a quieter Atlantic season,
which<00:16:07.400><c> is</c><00:16:07.720><c> good</c><00:16:07.960><c> news</c><00:16:08.101><c> [music]</c><00:16:08.200><c> for</c><00:16:08.280><c> the</c><00:16:08.360><c> US</c>

14:44.315 --> 14:44.325 align:start position:0%
which is good news [music] for the US
 

14:44.325 --> 14:46.115 align:start position:0%
which is good news [music] for the US
East<00:16:08.920><c> Coast,</c><00:16:09.320><c> but</c><00:16:09.640><c> terrible</c><00:16:10.080><c> news</c><00:16:10.320><c> for</c>

14:46.115 --> 14:46.125 align:start position:0%
East Coast, but terrible news for
 

14:46.125 --> 14:47.795 align:start position:0%
East Coast, but terrible news for
Eastern<00:16:10.760><c> Pacific</c><00:16:11.240><c> cyclones</c><00:16:11.680><c> that</c><00:16:11.800><c> affect</c>

14:47.795 --> 14:47.805 align:start position:0%
Eastern Pacific cyclones that affect
 

14:47.805 --> 14:49.995 align:start position:0%
Eastern Pacific cyclones that affect
Mexico,<00:16:12.600><c> Hawaii,</c><00:16:13.000><c> and</c><00:16:13.200><c> beyond.</c><00:16:13.680><c> And</c><00:16:14.200><c> you</c>

14:49.995 --> 14:50.005 align:start position:0%
Mexico, Hawaii, and beyond. And you
 

14:50.005 --> 14:52.115 align:start position:0%
Mexico, Hawaii, and beyond. And you
guessed<00:16:14.720><c> it,</c><00:16:15.280><c> there's</c><00:16:15.520><c> more.</c>

14:52.115 --> 14:52.125 align:start position:0%
guessed it, there's more.
 

14:52.125 --> 14:53.955 align:start position:0%
guessed it, there's more.
Historically,<00:16:17.040><c> El</c><00:16:17.200><c> Niños</c><00:16:17.520><c> have</c><00:16:17.720><c> caused</c><00:16:18.080><c> fish</c>

14:53.955 --> 14:53.965 align:start position:0%
Historically, El Niños have caused fish
 

14:53.965 --> 14:56.395 align:start position:0%
Historically, El Niños have caused fish
declines<00:16:18.800><c> and</c><00:16:18.960><c> even</c><00:16:19.320><c> penguin</c><00:16:20.000><c> die-offs</c><00:16:20.640><c> in</c>

14:56.395 --> 14:56.405 align:start position:0%
declines and even penguin die-offs in
 

14:56.405 --> 14:59.075 align:start position:0%
declines and even penguin die-offs in
the<00:16:20.840><c> Galapagos</c><00:16:21.920><c> due</c><00:16:22.080><c> to</c><00:16:22.240><c> changes</c><00:16:22.800><c> in</c><00:16:22.960><c> ocean</c>

14:59.075 --> 14:59.085 align:start position:0%
the Galapagos due to changes in ocean
 

14:59.085 --> 15:01.955 align:start position:0%
the Galapagos due to changes in ocean
currents.<00:16:24.560><c> A</c><00:16:24.800><c> super</c><00:16:25.400><c> El</c><00:16:25.600><c> Niño</c><00:16:25.920><c> would</c><00:16:26.080><c> only</c>

15:01.955 --> 15:01.965 align:start position:0%
currents. A super El Niño would only
 

15:01.965 --> 15:05.035 align:start position:0%
currents. A super El Niño would only
magnify<00:16:27.000><c> these</c><00:16:27.280><c> biological</c><00:16:28.000><c> stresses.</c><00:16:29.240><c> And</c>

15:05.035 --> 15:05.045 align:start position:0%
magnify these biological stresses. And
 

15:05.045 --> 15:06.235 align:start position:0%
magnify these biological stresses. And
all<00:16:29.520><c> of</c><00:16:29.600><c> that</c><00:16:29.800><c> before</c><00:16:30.000><c> we've</c><00:16:30.120><c> even</c><00:16:30.280><c> gotten</c><00:16:30.520><c> to</c>

15:06.235 --> 15:06.245 align:start position:0%
all of that before we've even gotten to
 

15:06.245 --> 15:09.355 align:start position:0%
all of that before we've even gotten to
the<00:16:30.680><c> thing</c><00:16:30.960><c> that</c><00:16:31.080><c> keeps</c><00:16:31.320><c> us</c><00:16:31.440><c> alive,</c><00:16:32.240><c> food.</c>

15:09.355 --> 15:09.365 align:start position:0%
the thing that keeps us alive, food.
 

15:09.365 --> 15:11.155 align:start position:0%
the thing that keeps us alive, food.
I<00:16:33.760><c> mean,</c><00:16:34.000><c> even</c><00:16:34.240><c> now,</c><00:16:34.560><c> climate</c><00:16:34.960><c> analysts</c><00:16:35.360><c> are</c>

15:11.155 --> 15:11.165 align:start position:0%
I mean, even now, climate analysts are
 

15:11.165 --> 15:13.235 align:start position:0%
I mean, even now, climate analysts are
already<00:16:35.960><c> warning</c><00:16:36.280><c> that</c><00:16:36.440><c> a</c><00:16:36.520><c> strong</c><00:16:37.040><c> El</c><00:16:37.200><c> Niño</c>

15:13.235 --> 15:13.245 align:start position:0%
already warning that a strong El Niño
 

15:13.245 --> 15:14.955 align:start position:0%
already warning that a strong El Niño
could<00:16:37.800><c> significantly</c><00:16:38.480><c> strain</c><00:16:38.880><c> food</c>

15:14.955 --> 15:14.965 align:start position:0%
could significantly strain food
 

15:14.965 --> 15:17.155 align:start position:0%
could significantly strain food
supplies.<00:16:40.160><c> The</c><00:16:40.320><c> India</c><00:16:40.760><c> Meteorological</c>

15:17.155 --> 15:17.165 align:start position:0%
supplies. The India Meteorological
 

15:17.165 --> 15:20.315 align:start position:0%
supplies. The India Meteorological
Department<00:16:42.200><c> has</c><00:16:42.440><c> pegged</c><00:16:42.720><c> the</c><00:16:42.839><c> 2026</c><00:16:43.960><c> monsoon</c>

15:20.315 --> 15:20.325 align:start position:0%
Department has pegged the 2026 monsoon
 

15:20.325 --> 15:22.675 align:start position:0%
Department has pegged the 2026 monsoon
at<00:16:44.880><c> just</c><00:16:45.160><c> 92%</c>

15:22.675 --> 15:22.685 align:start position:0%
at just 92%
 

15:22.685 --> 15:25.595 align:start position:0%
at just 92%
of<00:16:47.200><c> its</c><00:16:47.400><c> long</c><00:16:47.760><c> period</c><00:16:48.280><c> average,</c><00:16:49.120><c> the</c><00:16:49.280><c> lowest</c>

15:25.595 --> 15:25.605 align:start position:0%
of its long period average, the lowest
 

15:25.605 --> 15:28.835 align:start position:0%
of its long period average, the lowest
in<00:16:50.080><c> nearly</c><00:16:50.400><c> 30</c><00:16:51.120><c> years.</c><00:16:51.960><c> And</c><00:16:52.160><c> that</c><00:16:52.480><c> is</c><00:16:52.600><c> a</c><00:16:52.640><c> direct</c>

15:28.835 --> 15:28.845 align:start position:0%
in nearly 30 years. And that is a direct
 

15:28.845 --> 15:31.675 align:start position:0%
in nearly 30 years. And that is a direct
threat<00:16:53.640><c> to</c><00:16:53.760><c> the</c><00:16:53.920><c> kharif</c><00:16:54.480><c> crops,</c><00:16:55.360><c> the</c><00:16:55.480><c> staples,</c>

15:31.675 --> 15:31.685 align:start position:0%
threat to the kharif crops, the staples,
 

15:31.685 --> 15:33.795 align:start position:0%
threat to the kharif crops, the staples,
things<00:16:56.280><c> like</c><00:16:56.440><c> rice,</c><00:16:56.839><c> cotton,</c><00:16:57.280><c> and</c><00:16:57.560><c> soybeans</c>

15:33.795 --> 15:33.805 align:start position:0%
things like rice, cotton, and soybeans
 

15:33.805 --> 15:36.795 align:start position:0%
things like rice, cotton, and soybeans
that<00:16:58.400><c> literally</c><00:16:58.800><c> feed</c><00:16:59.160><c> billions</c><00:16:59.600><c> of</c><00:16:59.720><c> people.</c>

15:36.795 --> 15:36.805 align:start position:0%
that literally feed billions of people.
 

15:36.805 --> 15:38.715 align:start position:0%
that literally feed billions of people.
If<00:17:01.360><c> the</c><00:17:01.480><c> rains</c><00:17:01.880><c> fail</c><00:17:02.240><c> in</c><00:17:02.440><c> August</c><00:17:02.880><c> and</c>

15:38.715 --> 15:38.725 align:start position:0%
If the rains fail in August and
 

15:38.725 --> 15:40.635 align:start position:0%
If the rains fail in August and
September,<00:17:03.640><c> we</c><00:17:03.800><c> aren't</c><00:17:03.920><c> just</c><00:17:04.079><c> looking</c><00:17:04.360><c> at</c><00:17:04.600><c> dry</c>

15:40.635 --> 15:40.645 align:start position:0%
September, we aren't just looking at dry
 

15:40.645 --> 15:42.875 align:start position:0%
September, we aren't just looking at dry
fields,<00:17:05.880><c> we're</c><00:17:06.000><c> looking</c><00:17:06.280><c> at</c><00:17:06.400><c> food</c><00:17:06.680><c> inflation</c>

15:42.875 --> 15:42.885 align:start position:0%
fields, we're looking at food inflation
 

15:42.885 --> 15:45.795 align:start position:0%
fields, we're looking at food inflation
that<00:17:07.360><c> could</c><00:17:07.520><c> exceed</c><00:17:08.000><c> 4.5%</c>

15:45.795 --> 15:45.805 align:start position:0%
that could exceed 4.5%
 

15:45.805 --> 15:47.755 align:start position:0%
that could exceed 4.5%
destabilizing<00:17:11.120><c> the</c><00:17:11.240><c> rural</c><00:17:11.439><c> economy</c><00:17:11.920><c> for</c><00:17:12.000><c> the</c>

15:47.755 --> 15:47.765 align:start position:0%
destabilizing the rural economy for the
 

15:47.765 --> 15:50.195 align:start position:0%
destabilizing the rural economy for the
entire<00:17:12.839><c> subcontinent.</c>

15:50.195 --> 15:50.205 align:start position:0%
entire subcontinent.
 

15:50.205 --> 15:51.995 align:start position:0%
entire subcontinent.
And<00:17:14.680><c> there's</c><00:17:14.800><c> another</c><00:17:15.079><c> twist</c><00:17:15.439><c> in</c><00:17:15.560><c> this,</c><00:17:15.800><c> too.</c>

15:51.995 --> 15:52.005 align:start position:0%
And there's another twist in this, too.
 

15:52.005 --> 15:53.995 align:start position:0%
And there's another twist in this, too.
The<00:17:16.480><c> Energy</c><00:17:16.800><c> and</c><00:17:17.040><c> Climate</c><00:17:17.520><c> intelligence</c><00:17:18.160><c> unit</c>

15:53.995 --> 15:54.005 align:start position:0%
The Energy and Climate intelligence unit
 

15:54.005 --> 15:55.395 align:start position:0%
The Energy and Climate intelligence unit
just<00:17:18.520><c> released</c><00:17:18.760><c> an</c><00:17:18.880><c> article</c><00:17:19.199><c> noting</c><00:17:19.480><c> that</c><00:17:19.600><c> an</c>

15:55.395 --> 15:55.405 align:start position:0%
just released an article noting that an
 

15:55.405 --> 15:58.275 align:start position:0%
just released an article noting that an
El<00:17:19.959><c> Nino</c><00:17:20.400><c> driven</c><00:17:20.720><c> weather</c><00:17:20.959><c> shock</c><00:17:21.280><c> on</c><00:17:21.480><c> top</c><00:17:22.319><c> of</c>

15:58.275 --> 15:58.285 align:start position:0%
El Nino driven weather shock on top of
 

15:58.285 --> 16:00.195 align:start position:0%
El Nino driven weather shock on top of
war<00:17:22.839><c> related</c><00:17:23.360><c> fertilizer</c><00:17:24.040><c> and</c><00:17:24.280><c> fuel</c>

16:00.195 --> 16:00.205 align:start position:0%
war related fertilizer and fuel
 

16:00.205 --> 16:02.795 align:start position:0%
war related fertilizer and fuel
disruptions<00:17:25.560><c> could</c><00:17:25.720><c> drive</c><00:17:26.079><c> up</c><00:17:26.240><c> both</c><00:17:26.520><c> prices</c>

16:02.795 --> 16:02.805 align:start position:0%
disruptions could drive up both prices
 

16:02.805 --> 16:06.355 align:start position:0%
disruptions could drive up both prices
and<00:17:27.480><c> inflation.</c><00:17:28.680><c> In</c><00:17:29.000><c> short</c><00:17:29.640><c> harvest</c><00:17:30.240><c> in</c><00:17:30.440><c> those</c>

16:06.355 --> 16:06.365 align:start position:0%
and inflation. In short harvest in those
 

16:06.365 --> 16:08.515 align:start position:0%
and inflation. In short harvest in those
key<00:17:31.040><c> farming</c><00:17:31.520><c> regions</c><00:17:31.960><c> so</c><00:17:32.200><c> rice</c><00:17:32.520><c> in</c><00:17:32.640><c> Asia,</c>

16:08.515 --> 16:08.525 align:start position:0%
key farming regions so rice in Asia,
 

16:08.525 --> 16:10.995 align:start position:0%
key farming regions so rice in Asia,
coffee<00:17:33.160><c> in</c><00:17:33.240><c> Africa,</c><00:17:33.640><c> maize</c><00:17:34.080><c> in</c><00:17:34.240><c> Latin</c><00:17:34.520><c> America</c>

16:10.995 --> 16:11.005 align:start position:0%
coffee in Africa, maize in Latin America
 

16:11.005 --> 16:13.835 align:start position:0%
coffee in Africa, maize in Latin America
would<00:17:35.640><c> majorly</c><00:17:36.240><c> suffer</c><00:17:37.120><c> amplifying</c><00:17:37.800><c> hunger</c>

16:13.835 --> 16:13.845 align:start position:0%
would majorly suffer amplifying hunger
 

16:13.845 --> 16:16.075 align:start position:0%
would majorly suffer amplifying hunger
and<00:17:38.320><c> economic</c><00:17:38.720><c> stress</c><00:17:39.040><c> not</c><00:17:39.240><c> just</c><00:17:39.520><c> locally</c><00:17:40.320><c> but</c>

16:16.075 --> 16:16.085 align:start position:0%
and economic stress not just locally but
 

16:16.085 --> 16:18.275 align:start position:0%
and economic stress not just locally but
across<00:17:40.720><c> the</c><00:17:40.840><c> entire</c><00:17:41.400><c> planet.</c>

16:18.275 --> 16:18.285 align:start position:0%
across the entire planet.
 

16:18.285 --> 16:20.195 align:start position:0%
across the entire planet.
Analysis<00:17:43.160><c> by</c><00:17:43.280><c> the</c><00:17:43.400><c> United</c><00:17:43.760><c> Nations</c><00:17:44.200><c> World</c>

16:20.195 --> 16:20.205 align:start position:0%
Analysis by the United Nations World
 

16:20.205 --> 16:22.355 align:start position:0%
Analysis by the United Nations World
Food<00:17:44.920><c> Program</c><00:17:45.760><c> warned</c><00:17:46.080><c> that</c><00:17:46.160><c> the</c><00:17:46.280><c> number</c><00:17:46.600><c> of</c>

16:22.355 --> 16:22.365 align:start position:0%
Food Program warned that the number of
 

16:22.365 --> 16:24.595 align:start position:0%
Food Program warned that the number of
food<00:17:47.040><c> insecure</c><00:17:47.480><c> people</c><00:17:47.760><c> across</c><00:17:48.080><c> the</c><00:17:48.200><c> globe</c>

16:24.595 --> 16:24.605 align:start position:0%
food insecure people across the globe
 

16:24.605 --> 16:26.315 align:start position:0%
food insecure people across the globe
could<00:17:49.200><c> reach</c><00:17:49.440><c> levels</c><00:17:49.840><c> last</c><00:17:50.200><c> seen</c><00:17:50.480><c> at</c><00:17:50.600><c> the</c>

16:26.315 --> 16:26.325 align:start position:0%
could reach levels last seen at the
 

16:26.325 --> 16:28.755 align:start position:0%
could reach levels last seen at the
start<00:17:51.200><c> of</c><00:17:51.280><c> the</c><00:17:51.400><c> Russian</c><00:17:51.880><c> Ukraine</c><00:17:52.400><c> invasion</c><00:17:52.960><c> in</c>

16:28.755 --> 16:28.765 align:start position:0%
start of the Russian Ukraine invasion in
 

16:28.765 --> 16:30.315 align:start position:0%
start of the Russian Ukraine invasion in
2022

16:30.315 --> 16:30.325 align:start position:0%
2022
 

16:30.325 --> 16:32.475 align:start position:0%
2022
impacting<00:17:55.080><c> up</c><00:17:55.160><c> to</c><00:17:55.280><c> 318</c>

16:32.475 --> 16:32.485 align:start position:0%
impacting up to 318
 

16:32.485 --> 16:34.595 align:start position:0%
impacting up to 318
million<00:17:57.480><c> people</c><00:17:57.880><c> across</c><00:17:58.280><c> the</c><00:17:58.400><c> globe</c><00:17:58.680><c> who</c><00:17:58.840><c> are</c>

16:34.595 --> 16:34.605 align:start position:0%
million people across the globe who are
 

16:34.605 --> 16:38.395 align:start position:0%
million people across the globe who are
already<00:18:00.040><c> food</c><00:18:00.440><c> insecure.</c>

16:38.395 --> 16:38.405 align:start position:0%
already food insecure.
 

16:38.405 --> 16:40.555 align:start position:0%
already food insecure.
Ooh,<00:18:03.360><c> yeah,</c><00:18:03.760><c> it's</c><00:18:03.960><c> a</c><00:18:04.000><c> lot,</c><00:18:04.360><c> isn't</c><00:18:04.600><c> it?</c><00:18:04.880><c> Uh</c>

16:40.555 --> 16:40.565 align:start position:0%
Ooh, yeah, it's a lot, isn't it? Uh
 

16:40.565 --> 16:43.035 align:start position:0%
Ooh, yeah, it's a lot, isn't it? Uh
sorry<00:18:05.160><c> for</c><00:18:05.240><c> that</c><00:18:05.640><c> tirade</c><00:18:06.040><c> of</c><00:18:06.240><c> information.</c><00:18:07.280><c> If</c>

16:43.035 --> 16:43.045 align:start position:0%
sorry for that tirade of information. If
 

16:43.045 --> 16:44.475 align:start position:0%
sorry for that tirade of information. If
you<00:18:07.480><c> are</c><00:18:07.560><c> looking</c><00:18:07.760><c> for</c><00:18:07.880><c> a</c><00:18:07.960><c> scrap</c><00:18:08.440><c> of</c><00:18:08.640><c> good</c>

16:44.475 --> 16:44.485 align:start position:0%
you are looking for a scrap of good
 

16:44.485 --> 16:46.795 align:start position:0%
you are looking for a scrap of good
news,<00:18:09.320><c> well</c><00:18:09.480><c> as</c><00:18:09.560><c> good</c><00:18:09.720><c> as</c><00:18:09.800><c> can</c><00:18:10.040><c> be,</c><00:18:10.520><c> um</c><00:18:10.800><c> come</c><00:18:11.040><c> to</c>

16:46.795 --> 16:46.805 align:start position:0%
news, well as good as can be, um come to
 

16:46.805 --> 16:48.115 align:start position:0%
news, well as good as can be, um come to
Europe.

16:48.115 --> 16:48.125 align:start position:0%
Europe.
 

16:48.125 --> 16:49.635 align:start position:0%
Europe.
Over<00:18:12.680><c> here</c><00:18:12.800><c> where</c><00:18:12.960><c> I</c><00:18:13.040><c> am</c><00:18:13.160><c> in</c><00:18:13.240><c> the</c><00:18:13.360><c> UK</c><00:18:13.640><c> and</c><00:18:13.760><c> into</c>

16:49.635 --> 16:49.645 align:start position:0%
Over here where I am in the UK and into
 

16:49.645 --> 16:51.475 align:start position:0%
Over here where I am in the UK and into
mainland<00:18:14.400><c> Europe,</c><00:18:14.640><c> El</c><00:18:14.760><c> Nino's</c><00:18:15.160><c> influence</c><00:18:15.600><c> is</c>

16:51.475 --> 16:51.485 align:start position:0%
mainland Europe, El Nino's influence is
 

16:51.485 --> 16:54.195 align:start position:0%
mainland Europe, El Nino's influence is
more<00:18:16.280><c> indirect.</c><00:18:17.400><c> Some</c><00:18:17.720><c> studies</c><00:18:18.040><c> suggest</c><00:18:18.440><c> El</c>

16:54.195 --> 16:54.205 align:start position:0%
more indirect. Some studies suggest El
 

16:54.205 --> 16:56.115 align:start position:0%
more indirect. Some studies suggest El
Nino's<00:18:19.000><c> winters</c><00:18:19.400><c> tend</c><00:18:19.800><c> to</c><00:18:19.880><c> be</c><00:18:20.000><c> milder</c><00:18:20.360><c> and</c>

16:56.115 --> 16:56.125 align:start position:0%
Nino's winters tend to be milder and
 

16:56.125 --> 16:57.675 align:start position:0%
Nino's winters tend to be milder and
wetter<00:18:20.760><c> in</c><00:18:20.880><c> northern</c><00:18:21.240><c> Europe</c><00:18:21.480><c> but</c><00:18:21.600><c> the</c><00:18:21.680><c> signal</c>

16:57.675 --> 16:57.685 align:start position:0%
wetter in northern Europe but the signal
 

16:57.685 --> 16:59.795 align:start position:0%
wetter in northern Europe but the signal
is<00:18:22.240><c> pretty</c><00:18:22.600><c> weak</c><00:18:23.240><c> and</c><00:18:23.360><c> the</c><00:18:23.440><c> summer</c><00:18:23.720><c> impacts</c>

16:59.795 --> 16:59.805 align:start position:0%
is pretty weak and the summer impacts
 

16:59.805 --> 17:01.835 align:start position:0%
is pretty weak and the summer impacts
are<00:18:24.360><c> even</c><00:18:24.680><c> less</c><00:18:24.920><c> predictable.</c><00:18:25.880><c> If</c><00:18:26.000><c> you</c><00:18:26.040><c> look</c>

17:01.835 --> 17:01.845 align:start position:0%
are even less predictable. If you look
 

17:01.845 --> 17:03.275 align:start position:0%
are even less predictable. If you look
back<00:18:26.400><c> at</c><00:18:26.480><c> some</c><00:18:26.600><c> of</c><00:18:26.640><c> the</c><00:18:26.760><c> developing</c><00:18:27.240><c> El</c><00:18:27.360><c> Nino</c>

17:03.275 --> 17:03.285 align:start position:0%
back at some of the developing El Nino
 

17:03.285 --> 17:06.915 align:start position:0%
back at some of the developing El Nino
years<00:18:27.880><c> in</c><00:18:28.000><c> 1997</c><00:18:28.760><c> and</c><00:18:28.880><c> 2015</c><00:18:29.400><c> and</c><00:18:29.520><c> even</c><00:18:29.760><c> 2023,</c>

17:06.915 --> 17:06.925 align:start position:0%
years in 1997 and 2015 and even 2023,
 

17:06.925 --> 17:08.675 align:start position:0%
years in 1997 and 2015 and even 2023,
they<00:18:31.440><c> all</c><00:18:31.560><c> featured</c><00:18:31.880><c> at</c><00:18:32.000><c> least</c><00:18:32.400><c> some</c><00:18:32.760><c> hot</c>

17:08.675 --> 17:08.685 align:start position:0%
they all featured at least some hot
 

17:08.685 --> 17:10.635 align:start position:0%
they all featured at least some hot
spells<00:18:33.480><c> but</c><00:18:33.720><c> no</c><00:18:33.960><c> simple</c><00:18:34.440><c> pattern</c><00:18:34.880><c> or</c>

17:10.635 --> 17:10.645 align:start position:0%
spells but no simple pattern or
 

17:10.645 --> 17:13.155 align:start position:0%
spells but no simple pattern or
something<00:18:35.280><c> that</c><00:18:35.440><c> unified</c><00:18:36.040><c> them</c><00:18:36.200><c> in</c><00:18:36.440><c> any</c><00:18:36.680><c> way.</c>

17:13.155 --> 17:13.165 align:start position:0%
something that unified them in any way.
 

17:13.165 --> 17:14.315 align:start position:0%
something that unified them in any way.
But<00:18:37.640><c> of</c><00:18:37.720><c> course,</c><00:18:38.000><c> thanks</c><00:18:38.240><c> to</c><00:18:38.320><c> our</c><00:18:38.400><c> good</c><00:18:38.560><c> old</c>

17:14.315 --> 17:14.325 align:start position:0%
But of course, thanks to our good old
 

17:14.325 --> 17:16.235 align:start position:0%
But of course, thanks to our good old
friend<00:18:38.920><c> global</c><00:18:39.240><c> warming,</c><00:18:39.720><c> any</c><00:18:40.080><c> El</c><00:18:40.280><c> Nino</c>

17:16.235 --> 17:16.245 align:start position:0%
friend global warming, any El Nino
 

17:16.245 --> 17:18.155 align:start position:0%
friend global warming, any El Nino
effects<00:18:41.040><c> might</c><00:18:41.400><c> actually</c><00:18:41.720><c> be</c><00:18:41.840><c> quite</c><00:18:42.200><c> hard</c><00:18:42.440><c> to</c>

17:18.155 --> 17:18.165 align:start position:0%
effects might actually be quite hard to
 

17:18.165 --> 17:20.315 align:start position:0%
effects might actually be quite hard to
disentangle<00:18:43.200><c> from</c><00:18:43.360><c> the</c><00:18:43.600><c> ongoing</c><00:18:44.120><c> trend</c><00:18:44.480><c> of</c>

17:20.315 --> 17:20.325 align:start position:0%
disentangle from the ongoing trend of
 

17:20.325 --> 17:23.075 align:start position:0%
disentangle from the ongoing trend of
record<00:18:45.080><c> some</c><00:18:45.280><c> heat</c><00:18:45.560><c> in</c><00:18:45.720><c> Europe</c><00:18:45.960><c> anyway,</c><00:18:46.360><c> so</c>

17:23.075 --> 17:23.085 align:start position:0%
record some heat in Europe anyway, so
 

17:23.085 --> 17:24.795 align:start position:0%
record some heat in Europe anyway, so
either<00:18:47.680><c> way.</c>

17:24.795 --> 17:24.805 align:start position:0%
either way.
 

17:24.805 --> 17:26.035 align:start position:0%
either way.
And<00:18:49.320><c> all</c><00:18:49.440><c> of</c><00:18:49.520><c> that</c><00:18:49.640><c> stuff</c><00:18:49.880><c> we've</c><00:18:50.000><c> just</c><00:18:50.200><c> talked</c>

17:26.035 --> 17:26.045 align:start position:0%
And all of that stuff we've just talked
 

17:26.045 --> 17:27.875 align:start position:0%
And all of that stuff we've just talked
about<00:18:50.600><c> doesn't</c><00:18:50.920><c> just</c><00:18:51.160><c> have</c><00:18:51.480><c> a</c><00:18:51.560><c> human</c><00:18:51.960><c> cost.</c>

17:27.875 --> 17:27.885 align:start position:0%
about doesn't just have a human cost.
 

17:27.885 --> 17:29.955 align:start position:0%
about doesn't just have a human cost.
There<00:18:52.360><c> is</c><00:18:52.480><c> also</c><00:18:52.960><c> quite</c><00:18:53.280><c> a</c><00:18:53.320><c> large</c><00:18:53.680><c> financial</c>

17:29.955 --> 17:29.965 align:start position:0%
There is also quite a large financial
 

17:29.965 --> 17:32.755 align:start position:0%
There is also quite a large financial
one.<00:18:55.040><c> In</c><00:18:55.200><c> 2023</c><00:18:56.040><c> researchers</c><00:18:56.560><c> from</c><00:18:56.720><c> Dartmouth</c>

17:32.755 --> 17:32.765 align:start position:0%
one. In 2023 researchers from Dartmouth
 

17:32.765 --> 17:35.435 align:start position:0%
one. In 2023 researchers from Dartmouth
University<00:18:58.000><c> estimated</c><00:18:58.560><c> the</c><00:18:58.720><c> average</c><00:18:59.160><c> El</c><00:18:59.320><c> Nino</c>

17:35.435 --> 17:35.445 align:start position:0%
University estimated the average El Nino
 

17:35.445 --> 17:38.635 align:start position:0%
University estimated the average El Nino
saps<00:19:00.160><c> about</c><00:19:00.480><c> 3.4</c><00:19:01.400><c> trillion</c><00:19:01.920><c> dollars</c><00:19:02.680><c> from</c><00:19:02.920><c> the</c>

17:38.635 --> 17:38.645 align:start position:0%
saps about 3.4 trillion dollars from the
 

17:38.645 --> 17:40.275 align:start position:0%
saps about 3.4 trillion dollars from the
global<00:19:03.520><c> economy.</c><00:19:04.040><c> That's</c><00:19:04.240><c> because</c><00:19:04.520><c> of</c>

17:40.275 --> 17:40.285 align:start position:0%
global economy. That's because of
 

17:40.285 --> 17:41.955 align:start position:0%
global economy. That's because of
destroying<00:19:05.080><c> crops,</c><00:19:05.600><c> preventing</c><00:19:05.960><c> the</c><00:19:06.040><c> flow</c><00:19:06.200><c> of</c>

17:41.955 --> 17:41.965 align:start position:0%
destroying crops, preventing the flow of
 

17:41.965 --> 17:43.555 align:start position:0%
destroying crops, preventing the flow of
goods<00:19:06.600><c> and</c><00:19:06.720><c> services,</c><00:19:07.360><c> all</c><00:19:07.480><c> that</c><00:19:07.680><c> kind</c><00:19:07.880><c> of</c>

17:43.555 --> 17:43.565 align:start position:0%
goods and services, all that kind of
 

17:43.565 --> 17:45.275 align:start position:0%
goods and services, all that kind of
stuff.<00:19:08.560><c> Now</c><00:19:08.680><c> that's</c><00:19:08.920><c> just</c><00:19:09.120><c> the</c><00:19:09.200><c> estimate</c><00:19:09.520><c> for</c>

17:45.275 --> 17:45.285 align:start position:0%
stuff. Now that's just the estimate for
 

17:45.285 --> 17:49.235 align:start position:0%
stuff. Now that's just the estimate for
an<00:19:09.800><c> average</c><00:19:10.640><c> El</c><00:19:10.800><c> Nino.</c><00:19:11.280><c> So</c><00:19:11.480><c> a</c><00:19:11.600><c> super</c><00:19:12.360><c> El</c><00:19:12.560><c> Nino</c>

17:49.235 --> 17:49.245 align:start position:0%
an average El Nino. So a super El Nino
 

17:49.245 --> 17:52.875 align:start position:0%
an average El Nino. So a super El Nino
will<00:19:13.720><c> be</c><00:19:13.920><c> far</c><00:19:14.440><c> more</c><00:19:14.680><c> devastating.</c>

17:52.875 --> 17:52.885 align:start position:0%
will be far more devastating.
 

17:52.885 --> 17:54.075 align:start position:0%
will be far more devastating.
None<00:19:17.400><c> of</c><00:19:17.480><c> that</c><00:19:17.640><c> makes</c><00:19:17.840><c> for</c><00:19:17.920><c> great</c><00:19:18.120><c> reading</c><00:19:18.280><c> at</c>

17:54.075 --> 17:54.085 align:start position:0%
None of that makes for great reading at
 

17:54.085 --> 17:55.395 align:start position:0%
None of that makes for great reading at
all,<00:19:18.600><c> does</c><00:19:18.800><c> it</c><00:19:18.920><c> really?</c><00:19:19.240><c> Um</c><00:19:19.400><c> there's</c><00:19:19.520><c> nothing</c>

17:55.395 --> 17:55.405 align:start position:0%
all, does it really? Um there's nothing
 

17:55.405 --> 17:57.795 align:start position:0%
all, does it really? Um there's nothing
remotely<00:19:20.200><c> super</c><00:19:20.960><c> about</c><00:19:21.280><c> any</c><00:19:21.400><c> of</c><00:19:21.480><c> this</c><00:19:21.680><c> for</c><00:19:21.840><c> us</c>

17:57.795 --> 17:57.805 align:start position:0%
remotely super about any of this for us
 

17:57.805 --> 17:59.795 align:start position:0%
remotely super about any of this for us
at<00:19:22.360><c> all.</c><00:19:22.640><c> Um</c><00:19:22.840><c> which</c><00:19:23.440><c> does</c><00:19:23.640><c> sort</c><00:19:23.840><c> of</c><00:19:23.880><c> beg</c><00:19:24.040><c> the</c>

17:59.795 --> 17:59.805 align:start position:0%
at all. Um which does sort of beg the
 

17:59.805 --> 18:02.555 align:start position:0%
at all. Um which does sort of beg the
question,<00:19:25.000><c> why</c><00:19:25.560><c> is</c><00:19:25.840><c> this</c><00:19:26.080><c> happening</c><00:19:26.600><c> in</c><00:19:26.800><c> the</c>

18:02.555 --> 18:02.565 align:start position:0%
question, why is this happening in the
 

18:02.565 --> 18:04.875 align:start position:0%
question, why is this happening in the
first<00:19:27.280><c> place?</c><00:19:28.080><c> Well,</c><00:19:28.440><c> you</c><00:19:28.560><c> might</c><00:19:28.840><c> assume</c><00:19:29.120><c> it's</c>

18:04.875 --> 18:04.885 align:start position:0%
first place? Well, you might assume it's
 

18:04.885 --> 18:06.875 align:start position:0%
first place? Well, you might assume it's
because<00:19:29.560><c> of</c><00:19:29.680><c> global</c><00:19:30.040><c> warming,</c><00:19:30.400><c> which</c><00:19:30.680><c> is</c><00:19:30.920><c> sort</c>

18:06.875 --> 18:06.885 align:start position:0%
because of global warming, which is sort
 

18:06.885 --> 18:09.195 align:start position:0%
because of global warming, which is sort
of<00:19:31.320><c> what</c><00:19:31.520><c> I</c><00:19:31.640><c> think</c><00:19:32.000><c> as</c><00:19:32.160><c> well.</c><00:19:32.840><c> But,</c><00:19:33.120><c> bear</c><00:19:33.360><c> with</c>

18:09.195 --> 18:09.205 align:start position:0%
of what I think as well. But, bear with
 

18:09.205 --> 18:10.755 align:start position:0%
of what I think as well. But, bear with
me<00:19:33.640><c> here</c><00:19:33.840><c> because</c><00:19:34.120><c> this</c><00:19:34.440><c> sounds</c><00:19:34.800><c> like</c><00:19:34.920><c> a</c><00:19:35.000><c> bit</c>

18:10.755 --> 18:10.765 align:start position:0%
me here because this sounds like a bit
 

18:10.765 --> 18:12.795 align:start position:0%
me here because this sounds like a bit
of<00:19:35.200><c> a</c><00:19:35.320><c> cop-out,</c><00:19:36.120><c> but</c><00:19:36.480><c> scientists</c><00:19:37.080><c> are</c>

18:12.795 --> 18:12.805 align:start position:0%
of a cop-out, but scientists are
 

18:12.805 --> 18:15.115 align:start position:0%
of a cop-out, but scientists are
actually<00:19:37.480><c> continuing</c><00:19:38.160><c> to</c><00:19:38.280><c> study</c><00:19:38.680><c> how</c><00:19:39.120><c> global</c>

18:15.115 --> 18:15.125 align:start position:0%
actually continuing to study how global
 

18:15.125 --> 18:17.675 align:start position:0%
actually continuing to study how global
warming<00:19:39.760><c> affects</c><00:19:40.760><c> the</c><00:19:40.960><c> El</c><00:19:41.120><c> Nino</c><00:19:41.600><c> Southern</c>

18:17.675 --> 18:17.685 align:start position:0%
warming affects the El Nino Southern
 

18:17.685 --> 18:20.115 align:start position:0%
warming affects the El Nino Southern
Oscillation<00:19:42.640><c> cycle.</c><00:19:43.440><c> And</c><00:19:43.680><c> the</c><00:19:43.800><c> truth,</c><00:19:44.240><c> they</c>

18:20.115 --> 18:20.125 align:start position:0%
Oscillation cycle. And the truth, they
 

18:20.125 --> 18:23.035 align:start position:0%
Oscillation cycle. And the truth, they
say,<00:19:45.240><c> isn't</c><00:19:45.720><c> clear-cut.</c><00:19:47.040><c> Look,</c><00:19:47.160><c> as</c><00:19:47.320><c> I've</c>

18:23.035 --> 18:23.045 align:start position:0%
say, isn't clear-cut. Look, as I've
 

18:23.045 --> 18:25.075 align:start position:0%
say, isn't clear-cut. Look, as I've
alluded<00:19:47.680><c> to</c><00:19:47.840><c> in</c><00:19:47.960><c> this</c><00:19:48.160><c> video,</c><00:19:48.440><c> El</c><00:19:48.560><c> Nino</c><00:19:48.920><c> isn't</c>

18:25.075 --> 18:25.085 align:start position:0%
alluded to in this video, El Nino isn't
 

18:25.085 --> 18:27.715 align:start position:0%
alluded to in this video, El Nino isn't
new,<00:19:49.800><c> nor</c><00:19:50.040><c> is</c><00:19:50.160><c> it</c><00:19:50.280><c> particularly</c><00:19:51.040><c> special.</c><00:19:51.920><c> It</c>

18:27.715 --> 18:27.725 align:start position:0%
new, nor is it particularly special. It
 

18:27.725 --> 18:29.275 align:start position:0%
new, nor is it particularly special. It
used<00:19:52.320><c> to</c><00:19:52.400><c> be</c><00:19:52.480><c> like</c><00:19:52.720><c> that</c><00:19:52.880><c> uncle</c><00:19:53.240><c> you</c><00:19:53.360><c> saw</c><00:19:53.560><c> at</c>

18:29.275 --> 18:29.285 align:start position:0%
used to be like that uncle you saw at
 

18:29.285 --> 18:30.595 align:start position:0%
used to be like that uncle you saw at
family<00:19:53.920><c> events</c><00:19:54.240><c> every</c><00:19:54.400><c> couple</c><00:19:54.640><c> of</c><00:19:54.680><c> years</c><00:19:54.880><c> who</c>

18:30.595 --> 18:30.605 align:start position:0%
family events every couple of years who
 

18:30.605 --> 18:31.595 align:start position:0%
family events every couple of years who
sort<00:19:55.120><c> of</c><00:19:55.200><c> said</c><00:19:55.360><c> something</c><00:19:55.600><c> weird</c><00:19:55.800><c> and</c><00:19:55.880><c> then</c>

18:31.595 --> 18:31.605 align:start position:0%
sort of said something weird and then
 

18:31.605 --> 18:33.075 align:start position:0%
sort of said something weird and then
you<00:19:56.040><c> never</c><00:19:56.240><c> saw</c><00:19:56.400><c> him</c><00:19:56.520><c> again</c><00:19:56.760><c> till</c><00:19:57.000><c> the</c><00:19:57.120><c> next</c>

18:33.075 --> 18:33.085 align:start position:0%
you never saw him again till the next
 

18:33.085 --> 18:35.075 align:start position:0%
you never saw him again till the next
event.<00:19:57.760><c> But,</c><00:19:58.320><c> this</c><00:19:58.520><c> time</c><00:19:58.800><c> something</c><00:19:59.120><c> is</c>

18:35.075 --> 18:35.085 align:start position:0%
event. But, this time something is
 

18:35.085 --> 18:37.195 align:start position:0%
event. But, this time something is
clearly<00:19:59.760><c> different.</c><00:20:00.600><c> The</c><00:20:00.720><c> UN's</c><00:20:01.120><c> warned</c><00:20:01.360><c> that</c>

18:37.195 --> 18:37.205 align:start position:0%
clearly different. The UN's warned that
 

18:37.205 --> 18:38.835 align:start position:0%
clearly different. The UN's warned that
Earth's<00:20:01.840><c> climate</c><00:20:02.280><c> is</c><00:20:02.560><c> further</c><00:20:02.920><c> out</c><00:20:03.120><c> of</c>

18:38.835 --> 18:38.845 align:start position:0%
Earth's climate is further out of
 

18:38.845 --> 18:41.275 align:start position:0%
Earth's climate is further out of
balance<00:20:03.600><c> right</c><00:20:03.960><c> now</c><00:20:04.280><c> than</c><00:20:04.400><c> at</c><00:20:04.560><c> any</c><00:20:04.880><c> other</c><00:20:05.160><c> time</c>

18:41.275 --> 18:41.285 align:start position:0%
balance right now than at any other time
 

18:41.285 --> 18:44.035 align:start position:0%
balance right now than at any other time
in<00:20:05.800><c> recorded</c><00:20:06.360><c> history.</c><00:20:06.800><c> So,</c><00:20:07.400><c> how</c><00:20:07.680><c> can</c><00:20:08.000><c> both</c>

18:44.035 --> 18:44.045 align:start position:0%
in recorded history. So, how can both
 

18:44.045 --> 18:46.155 align:start position:0%
in recorded history. So, how can both
things<00:20:08.800><c> be</c><00:20:09.000><c> true?</c><00:20:09.640><c> I</c><00:20:09.680><c> mean,</c><00:20:09.920><c> based</c><00:20:10.200><c> on</c><00:20:10.280><c> that,</c>

18:46.155 --> 18:46.165 align:start position:0%
things be true? I mean, based on that,
 

18:46.165 --> 18:47.715 align:start position:0%
things be true? I mean, based on that,
good<00:20:10.680><c> old</c><00:20:10.840><c> Uncle</c><00:20:11.120><c> Enzo</c><00:20:11.440><c> would</c><00:20:11.560><c> have</c><00:20:11.680><c> rocked</c><00:20:11.960><c> up</c>

18:47.715 --> 18:47.725 align:start position:0%
good old Uncle Enzo would have rocked up
 

18:47.725 --> 18:49.555 align:start position:0%
good old Uncle Enzo would have rocked up
to<00:20:12.120><c> the</c><00:20:12.240><c> party</c><00:20:12.520><c> at</c><00:20:12.640><c> some</c><00:20:12.800><c> point</c><00:20:13.120><c> anyway,</c>

18:49.555 --> 18:49.565 align:start position:0%
to the party at some point anyway,
 

18:49.565 --> 18:52.435 align:start position:0%
to the party at some point anyway,
right?<00:20:14.800><c> Well,</c><00:20:15.120><c> yeah,</c><00:20:15.440><c> but</c><00:20:15.680><c> today's</c><00:20:16.200><c> ocean</c><00:20:16.520><c> is</c>

18:52.435 --> 18:52.445 align:start position:0%
right? Well, yeah, but today's ocean is
 

18:52.445 --> 18:55.395 align:start position:0%
right? Well, yeah, but today's ocean is
warmer<00:20:17.120><c> than</c><00:20:17.280><c> decades</c><00:20:17.800><c> past.</c><00:20:18.600><c> The</c><00:20:18.720><c> WMO</c><00:20:19.440><c> notes</c>

18:55.395 --> 18:55.405 align:start position:0%
warmer than decades past. The WMO notes
 

18:55.405 --> 18:58.835 align:start position:0%
warmer than decades past. The WMO notes
that<00:20:19.880><c> 2015</c><00:20:20.640><c> to</c><00:20:20.760><c> 2025</c><00:20:21.800><c> ocean</c><00:20:22.200><c> temperatures</c>

18:58.835 --> 18:58.845 align:start position:0%
that 2015 to 2025 ocean temperatures
 

18:58.845 --> 19:02.115 align:start position:0%
that 2015 to 2025 ocean temperatures
were<00:20:23.320><c> the</c><00:20:23.440><c> hottest</c><00:20:24.040><c> 11-year</c><00:20:24.760><c> span</c><00:20:25.200><c> on</c><00:20:25.640><c> record,</c>

19:02.115 --> 19:02.125 align:start position:0%
were the hottest 11-year span on record,
 

19:02.125 --> 19:04.395 align:start position:0%
were the hottest 11-year span on record,
with<00:20:26.760><c> Earth</c><00:20:27.080><c> gaining</c><00:20:27.480><c> heat</c><00:20:27.960><c> faster</c><00:20:28.480><c> than</c>

19:04.395 --> 19:04.405 align:start position:0%
with Earth gaining heat faster than
 

19:04.405 --> 19:05.475 align:start position:0%
with Earth gaining heat faster than
ever.

19:05.475 --> 19:05.485 align:start position:0%
ever.
 

19:05.485 --> 19:07.675 align:start position:0%
ever.
More<00:20:29.960><c> than</c><00:20:30.120><c> 90%</c><00:20:30.960><c> of</c><00:20:31.080><c> the</c><00:20:31.280><c> Earth's</c><00:20:31.600><c> extra</c>

19:07.675 --> 19:07.685 align:start position:0%
More than 90% of the Earth's extra
 

19:07.685 --> 19:09.875 align:start position:0%
More than 90% of the Earth's extra
energy<00:20:32.440><c> also</c><00:20:32.920><c> heats</c><00:20:33.360><c> the</c><00:20:33.560><c> oceans.</c><00:20:34.080><c> And</c>

19:09.875 --> 19:09.885 align:start position:0%
energy also heats the oceans. And
 

19:09.885 --> 19:12.355 align:start position:0%
energy also heats the oceans. And
according<00:20:34.600><c> to</c><00:20:34.680><c> the</c><00:20:34.760><c> WMO,</c><00:20:35.800><c> the</c><00:20:35.920><c> heat</c><00:20:36.200><c> stored</c><00:20:36.640><c> in</c>

19:12.355 --> 19:12.365 align:start position:0%
according to the WMO, the heat stored in
 

19:12.365 --> 19:14.995 align:start position:0%
according to the WMO, the heat stored in
the<00:20:36.880><c> upper</c><00:20:37.160><c> 2</c><00:20:37.400><c> km</c><00:20:37.840><c> of</c><00:20:38.000><c> global</c><00:20:38.360><c> oceans</c><00:20:39.080><c> reached</c>

19:14.995 --> 19:15.005 align:start position:0%
the upper 2 km of global oceans reached
 

19:15.005 --> 19:18.475 align:start position:0%
the upper 2 km of global oceans reached
a<00:20:39.480><c> new</c><00:20:39.800><c> high</c><00:20:40.600><c> in</c><00:20:40.760><c> 2025.</c>

19:18.475 --> 19:18.485 align:start position:0%
a new high in 2025.
 

19:18.485 --> 19:19.955 align:start position:0%
a new high in 2025.
Over<00:20:43.040><c> the</c><00:20:43.160><c> last</c><00:20:43.440><c> two</c><00:20:43.640><c> decades,</c><00:20:44.080><c> it's</c><00:20:44.200><c> been</c>

19:19.955 --> 19:19.965 align:start position:0%
Over the last two decades, it's been
 

19:19.965 --> 19:22.635 align:start position:0%
Over the last two decades, it's been
warming<00:20:44.600><c> more</c><00:20:44.760><c> than</c><00:20:44.960><c> twice</c><00:20:45.600><c> as</c><00:20:45.800><c> quickly</c><00:20:46.720><c> as</c><00:20:46.880><c> it</c>

19:22.635 --> 19:22.645 align:start position:0%
warming more than twice as quickly as it
 

19:22.645 --> 19:25.235 align:start position:0%
warming more than twice as quickly as it
was<00:20:47.160><c> during</c><00:20:47.360><c> the</c><00:20:47.480><c> late</c><00:20:47.800><c> 20th</c><00:20:48.400><c> century.</c>

19:25.235 --> 19:25.245 align:start position:0%
was during the late 20th century.
 

19:25.245 --> 19:27.715 align:start position:0%
was during the late 20th century.
Add<00:20:49.840><c> into</c><00:20:50.160><c> that</c><00:20:50.440><c> a</c><00:20:50.560><c> series</c><00:20:51.000><c> of</c><00:20:51.160><c> late</c><00:20:51.600><c> winter</c>

19:27.715 --> 19:27.725 align:start position:0%
Add into that a series of late winter
 

19:27.725 --> 19:29.555 align:start position:0%
Add into that a series of late winter
westerly<00:20:52.600><c> wind</c><00:20:52.880><c> bursts</c><00:20:53.160><c> that</c><00:20:53.280><c> have</c><00:20:53.360><c> injected</c>

19:29.555 --> 19:29.565 align:start position:0%
westerly wind bursts that have injected
 

19:29.565 --> 19:31.955 align:start position:0%
westerly wind bursts that have injected
heat<00:20:54.320><c> eastwards,</c><00:20:55.320><c> pumping</c><00:20:55.760><c> up</c><00:20:55.880><c> the</c><00:20:55.960><c> tropical</c>

19:31.955 --> 19:31.965 align:start position:0%
heat eastwards, pumping up the tropical
 

19:31.965 --> 19:34.675 align:start position:0%
heat eastwards, pumping up the tropical
Pacific's<00:20:56.760><c> heat</c><00:20:56.920><c> content</c><00:20:57.280><c> even</c><00:20:57.800><c> more,</c><00:20:58.880><c> and</c>

19:34.675 --> 19:34.685 align:start position:0%
Pacific's heat content even more, and
 

19:34.685 --> 19:37.035 align:start position:0%
Pacific's heat content even more, and
the<00:20:59.120><c> stage</c><00:20:59.480><c> is</c><00:20:59.600><c> set</c><00:20:59.880><c> for</c><00:21:00.000><c> a</c><00:21:00.040><c> potentially</c><00:21:00.880><c> very</c>

19:37.035 --> 19:37.045 align:start position:0%
the stage is set for a potentially very
 

19:37.045 --> 19:41.315 align:start position:0%
the stage is set for a potentially very
strong<00:21:01.840><c> or</c><00:21:02.000><c> even</c><00:21:02.960><c> super</c><00:21:03.560><c> event.</c>

19:41.315 --> 19:41.325 align:start position:0%
strong or even super event.
 

19:41.325 --> 19:44.875 align:start position:0%
strong or even super event.
If,<00:21:06.000><c> or</c><00:21:06.160><c> indeed</c><00:21:06.680><c> when</c><00:21:07.280><c> that</c><00:21:07.720><c> happens,</c><00:21:08.720><c> it</c><00:21:09.040><c> will</c>

19:44.875 --> 19:44.885 align:start position:0%
If, or indeed when that happens, it will
 

19:44.885 --> 19:47.755 align:start position:0%
If, or indeed when that happens, it will
escalate<00:21:09.800><c> into</c><00:21:10.080><c> a</c><00:21:10.200><c> super</c><00:21:10.720><c> El</c><00:21:10.880><c> Nino,</c><00:21:11.720><c> the</c><00:21:11.840><c> likes</c>

19:47.755 --> 19:47.765 align:start position:0%
escalate into a super El Nino, the likes
 

19:47.765 --> 19:49.675 align:start position:0%
escalate into a super El Nino, the likes
of<00:21:12.200><c> which</c><00:21:12.400><c> we've</c><00:21:12.520><c> only</c><00:21:12.680><c> seen</c><00:21:12.880><c> a</c><00:21:12.960><c> few</c><00:21:13.280><c> times</c><00:21:13.840><c> in</c>

19:49.675 --> 19:49.685 align:start position:0%
of which we've only seen a few times in
 

19:49.685 --> 19:52.475 align:start position:0%
of which we've only seen a few times in
history.<00:21:15.040><c> And</c><00:21:15.320><c> that</c><00:21:15.800><c> will</c><00:21:16.080><c> supercharge</c>

19:52.475 --> 19:52.485 align:start position:0%
history. And that will supercharge
 

19:52.485 --> 19:55.075 align:start position:0%
history. And that will supercharge
global<00:21:17.200><c> warming</c><00:21:17.880><c> and</c><00:21:18.080><c> extremes</c><00:21:18.880><c> around</c><00:21:19.360><c> the</c>

19:55.075 --> 19:55.085 align:start position:0%
global warming and extremes around the
 

19:55.085 --> 19:59.275 align:start position:0%
global warming and extremes around the
planet.

19:59.275 --> 19:59.285 align:start position:0%
 
 

19:59.285 --> 20:00.915 align:start position:0%
 
NOAA's<00:21:23.960><c> climate</c><00:21:24.240><c> prediction</c><00:21:24.640><c> center</c><00:21:24.920><c> updates</c>

20:00.915 --> 20:00.925 align:start position:0%
NOAA's climate prediction center updates
 

20:00.925 --> 20:02.835 align:start position:0%
NOAA's climate prediction center updates
their<00:21:25.440><c> ENSO</c><00:21:25.720><c> predictions</c><00:21:26.320><c> once</c><00:21:26.600><c> a</c><00:21:26.680><c> month.</c><00:21:27.000><c> So,</c>

20:02.835 --> 20:02.845 align:start position:0%
their ENSO predictions once a month. So,
 

20:02.845 --> 20:04.155 align:start position:0%
their ENSO predictions once a month. So,
maybe<00:21:27.480><c> by</c><00:21:27.600><c> the</c><00:21:27.720><c> time</c><00:21:27.920><c> you're</c><00:21:28.040><c> watching</c><00:21:28.320><c> this,</c>

20:04.155 --> 20:04.165 align:start position:0%
maybe by the time you're watching this,
 

20:04.165 --> 20:05.755 align:start position:0%
maybe by the time you're watching this,
we'll<00:21:28.720><c> have</c><00:21:28.960><c> more</c><00:21:29.080><c> information.</c><00:21:29.600><c> We</c><00:21:29.680><c> may</c><00:21:29.920><c> even</c>

20:05.755 --> 20:05.765 align:start position:0%
we'll have more information. We may even
 

20:05.765 --> 20:09.035 align:start position:0%
we'll have more information. We may even
be<00:21:30.240><c> in</c><00:21:30.360><c> the</c><00:21:30.440><c> midst</c><00:21:31.280><c> of</c><00:21:31.640><c> a</c><00:21:31.760><c> super</c><00:21:32.160><c> El</c><00:21:32.360><c> Nino.</c><00:21:33.240><c> But,</c>

20:09.035 --> 20:09.045 align:start position:0%
be in the midst of a super El Nino. But,
 

20:09.045 --> 20:11.115 align:start position:0%
be in the midst of a super El Nino. But,
what<00:21:33.560><c> we</c><00:21:33.720><c> do</c><00:21:33.960><c> know</c><00:21:34.400><c> is</c><00:21:34.520><c> that</c><00:21:34.680><c> super</c><00:21:34.960><c> El</c><00:21:35.080><c> Ninos</c>

20:11.115 --> 20:11.125 align:start position:0%
what we do know is that super El Ninos
 

20:11.125 --> 20:13.195 align:start position:0%
what we do know is that super El Ninos
have<00:21:35.960><c> happened</c><00:21:36.320><c> before</c><00:21:36.800><c> and</c><00:21:37.000><c> they</c><00:21:37.240><c> will</c>

20:13.195 --> 20:13.205 align:start position:0%
have happened before and they will
 

20:13.205 --> 20:15.315 align:start position:0%
have happened before and they will
likely<00:21:37.920><c> happen</c><00:21:38.240><c> again.</c><00:21:39.120><c> And</c><00:21:39.360><c> whatever</c>

20:15.315 --> 20:15.325 align:start position:0%
likely happen again. And whatever
 

20:15.325 --> 20:17.075 align:start position:0%
likely happen again. And whatever
happens,<00:21:40.040><c> it's</c><00:21:40.160><c> going</c><00:21:40.280><c> to</c><00:21:40.320><c> be</c><00:21:40.440><c> a</c><00:21:40.600><c> wild</c><00:21:41.240><c> odd</c>

20:17.075 --> 20:17.085 align:start position:0%
happens, it's going to be a wild odd
 

20:17.085 --> 20:23.675 align:start position:0%
happens, it's going to be a wild odd
ride<00:21:41.680><c> watching</c><00:21:41.960><c> this</c><00:21:42.120><c> one</c><00:21:42.320><c> play</c><00:21:42.560><c> out.</c>

20:17.319 --> 20:17.329 align:start position:0%
planet after this video, click the link
 

20:17.329 --> 20:20.369 align:start position:0%
planet after this video, click the link
in<00:22:16.480><c> the</c><00:22:16.560><c> video</c><00:22:16.760><c> description.</c>