Imagine a force so powerful it can
reshape weather across the entire
planet.
One that floods continents, dries out
rainforests, and can even impact whole
civilizations.
Earth's climate is a delicate balance of
orbital mechanics, atmospheric
circulation, and seasonal cycles. But
every few years that balance snaps.
The planet lurches into one of two
extremes. El Nino or Leninia.
The opposing phases of a climate engine
called the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
This cycle has been influencing Earth
for tens of thousands of years. But this
time, something has changed.
The leninia we're currently experiencing
isn't playing by the old rules and
Earth's natural air conditioning unit
has a problem. I'm James Stewart and
you're watching Astram Earth. This is
the science behind one of Earth's most
powerful climate mechanisms. Join me as
we unravel the mystery of Leninia's
latest twist. We'll explain what Leninia
is supposed to do and look at why this
time is different and what it means for
us. Is this a case of Leninia changing
its playbook or have we changed the
playing field?
To know why something isn't behaving as
we expect, we need to know what it is in
the first place. So, let's start there.
Leninia, which is Spanish for the little
girl. and El Nino, Spanish for the boy,
are opposite phases of the El Nino
Southern Oscillation Cycle, or Enso for
short. Think of the Pacific Ocean like a
massive seessaw for climate. This two
and fro cycle happens every 2 to 7 years
with El Nino or Leninia beginning in
June, peaking in December, and usually
dissipating by April. This isn't a new
thing either. Planet Earth is incredibly
resilient, enduring any number of
climates in its history, including Enzo.
Evidence of its influence reaches deep
into the past. Its chemical fingerprints
are preserved in ancient coral fossils
and sediment cores stretching back tens
of thousands of years. Written accounts
of Enzo related weather patterns date as
far back as the 16th century.
The in between where there is neither an
El Nino nor a leninia is known as
ensouene a balance between the two where
conditions and temperatures hover around
average preventing the formation of
either phenomenon. But that stability
doesn't last. Small shifts in trade
winds or ocean surface temperatures can
act like a trigger, pushing the planet
out of balance. And it doesn't take
much. Just a 0.5° C sea surface rise can
trigger El Nino. And conversely, when
temperatures dip below average, Leninia
may develop. In the case of Leninia,
unusually strong easterly trade winds
push warm surface water westward toward
Asia and Australia, allowing much cooler
water to upwell along the coast of South
America.
The net effect is a large region of
cooler than normal sea surface
temperatures in the central and eastern
tropical Pacific.
These ocean changes alter atmospheric
circulation and leninia strengthens the
Pacific walker circulation, a large
atmospheric loop usually shifting jet
streams northward.
El Nino and Leninia are in a sort of
climate tugofwar. When one gains the
upper hand, different regions around the
world feel the pull in opposite ways. Or
at least they should.
You see, Leninia exposes a larger area
of cool ocean water, and it acts almost
like a temporary air conditioner for the
planet. As a general rule of thumb,
therefore, global average temperature
often dips slightly during Leninia years
compared to El Nino years. For example,
if you look at the historical global
temperature graph, strong leninas like
from 1999 to 2000 or even 2011 usually
interrupt the warming trend a bit. In
contrast, a big El Nino like the one we
had in 1998 or even 2016 tends to spike
global temperatures to new heights due
to all that extra heat being released
from the ocean. It's no surprise,
therefore, that leninia tends to deliver
monsoon and tropical rainfall over
Indonesia, the Philippines, and parts of
India, and Australia often sees above
average rain and cooler temperatures,
especially in eastern and northern
regions. For the Americas, as the
jetream shifts northward, typically
winter storms are pushed toward the
Pacific Northwest and Canada, leaving
swathes of California drier than
average, especially in the south. It's a
similar story in South America, too,
where the northern parts Colombia,
Venezuela, and Northern Brazil are
usually wetter, while some central and
southern regions experience drier than
normal conditions. Enzo's reach is truly
global and its effects are felt
everywhere. A key insight from recent
research in 2025 using NASA's Grace
satellite data found that Leninia and El
Nino act like a global amplifier
shifting water distribution on a
planetary scale. Nowhere is safe from
its impact. They also found that ENSO
has a synchronizing effect on water
storage extremes across continents. What
this means essentially is that when the
Pacific flips, it can simultaneously tip
some places into drought and others into
floods. That's that seesaw effect we
talked about earlier. During the strong
2010 2011 leninia, Australia, Southeast
Brazil, and parts of Africa all
experienced extreme precipitation at the
same time. Conversely, large El Nino
have caused droughts in disperate
regions like South Africa and Amazonia.
The study also found a shift over the
past decade. Before 2011, wet extremes
were more common, but since then, dry
extremes have dominated, a sign that
ensodriven water extremes are already
changing. And that's our first clue.
Traditionally, leninia is nature's brake
pedal on global warming. It's a bit of a
cool down. But during the most recent
cycle from late 2025 and into 2026,
where I'm recording this now, something
has changed.
Not all leninia are created equal. Some
are roaring strong, others are barely
there. The current Leninia, the one
we're experiencing as I write this in
January 2026, falls into the latter
category. It's relatively weak and
expected to be short-lived, like a
Leninia light, if you will. Ocean
measurements in November 2025 showed
only borderline leninia conditions with
just enough cool water to even meet the
threshold, and by early 2026,
those cool anomalies have already
started to fade.
The World Meteorological Organization
pegged the odds of this Leninia sticking
around through February 2026 at only
55%.
With nearly as high a chance it would
fade back to neutral in the same time
frame. In fact, by spring 2026, models
show a rapid warming below the surface,
signaling the collapse of Leninia might
already be underway. A burst of westerly
winds in the Pacific in January 2026 is
actively tearing down the Leninia
pattern. A sign that the Pacific is
gearing up for a major flip toward El
Nino later this year. Why does this
matter? Well, a weak Leninia has a
weaker pull on the climate. It's like
the difference between a light tap and a
hard yank on that climate tug of warp.
When the leninia signal is weak, other
influences can overwhelm or muddy the
pattern. As NASA oceanographer Josh
Willis explains, when ENSO events are
mild, whether Leninia or El Nino, the
usual weather outcomes become
notoriously difficult to predict. Not
only is it weak, it's also short, and
that's a problem. Take Australia for
example. According to their Bureau of
Meteorology, this 2025 leninia also form
relatively late in the year around
October time, missing the prime season
in the spring, which is when leninia
usually has its biggest effect on
Australian rainfall. And then by the
Australian summer, its influence was
already waning. In its place, Australia
is seeing more of its other climate
drivers like warm Indian Ocean waters
and southern hemisphere wind patterns
dominating the weather, squashing this
weak leninia like a bug under its shoe.
Conversely, in North America, the
signature Southern California drought
has so far been defied. Here, Leninia
tends to correlate with dry water years,
which the National Weather Service
defines as from October the 1st to
September the 30th. In fact, out of 25
leninia since 1954,
15 have brought drier than normal
conditions to California.
However, by December 2025,
California experienced some
record-breaking rain. In fact, there was
so much of the wet stuff that it helped
to put out some of the remnants of the
autumn fire season and even started to
refill reservoirs previously left dry.
It was so unexpected it prompted the Los
Angeles Times to ask, "What Leninia?" In
summary, the goalposts have shifted.
Something has changed. This Leninia came
late. It isn't very strong and it won't
stick around for very long. And whilst
that might sound quite positive and
bring short-term gains in California at
least, the longer term implications
around the world are far more
concerning.
more private as we head back to the video.
So why is this change happening? Well,
there are several factors that are
rewriting the ENSO script with the most
prominent being, you guessed it, global
warming. Perhaps the biggest difference
this time in the case of the 2025
Leninia is that the baseline climate is
warmer. I made an entire video on
exactly how much warmer if you want to
check that out and that changes the game
for Laninia. Typically, Leninia should
bring those cooler days and widespread
rains down under. But Australia just saw
one of its warmest October on record for
ocean temperatures. Even with Leninia
brewing, the surrounding seas were so
warm that the extra heat counteracted
Leninia's cooling tilt. The long range
outlook suggested many parts of
Australia might get average to below
average rainfall and hotter than normal
weather even while leninia conditions
persist. In other words, the planet's
background warming is overwhelming
Leninia. And it's not just Australia
feeling this change.
The United Nations WMO warned in late
2025 that even if Leninia returned,
global temperatures are expected to be
above average in the coming months. Why?
Because the relentless climb of
greenhouse gas-driven warming simply
outguns the small cooling leninia
provides.
Remember, leninia is a temporary natural
cool phase. But climate change is a
long-term pervasive warming trend and it
doesn't take vacations. The recent
triple dip leninia from 2020 to 2023 was
a case in point. It was the first triple
leninia of the 21st century and it's
only occurred three times since reliable
records began in the 1950s.
Yes, it did intensify droughts and
floods in various places, but it did
nothing to break the run of
exceptionally hot years. The bottom line
is the past 10 years were still the
hottest on record. Leninia or not. It's
like me having my air conditioning on in
my office. That's leninia. But my room
keeps getting hotter because in the
corner I've got a furnace on. That's
climate change. And there's more, too.
Crucially, a warmer atmosphere also
holds more moisture. Now, this can mean
two conflicting things. On one hand,
drier regions might get even hotter and
drier because there's more evaporation.
But on the other hand, wind conditions
do allow rain. There's more water vapor
available to dump. So, rainful extremes
can be fiercer. And we don't necessarily
know which way around this might happen.
Climate change is essentially loading
the dice for extremes and the old
patterns might not manifest the same
way. The dice are weighted differently
now.
For instance, one paradoxical outcome
that's currently being discussed in the
scientific community is that yeah,
historically leninia has the ability to
curb global temperature rise, but in
recent years we still keep breaking heat
records during those years. But here's
where it gets messed up. Because when
the next El Nino arrives on top of all
this extra heat, it could do the
opposite and propel global temperatures
to new heights.
Many experts are looking wearily at 2026
and 2027 already when a forecasted El
Nino could spike temperatures further.
In fact, literally as I was recording
this today on the 9th of February 2026,
new data from the US government's Noah
and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology
said that if El Nino arrives in late
2026, then the knock-on effects would
likely be record high temperatures in
2027.
So, yes, something changed. This isn't a
hunch of mine or a clickbaity title that
this is measurable. Climate data
confirms that the baseline has shifted.
Our atmosphere is hotter than
pre-industrial times, more energetic,
and that change permeates every weather
pattern. But it's not just global
warming causing these changes. Another
reason this leninia isn't behaving by
the book is that Enzo is not the only
game in town. There are other climate
drivers and a healthy dose of chaos in
the atmosphere that can override or
modulate ENSO's influence. And this
year, some of those wild cards turned
up.
A prime example is the influence of
atmospheric rivers or ARs. These are
long plumes of water vapor from the
tropics and jetream quirks on the US
West Coast. Normally, Leninia's
northshifted jetream keeps Southern
California dry. But late 2025 saw an
unusual pattern. A persistent low
pressure system camped off the West
Coast, stretching farther south than
usual for autumn. This low tapped
directly into deep tropical moisture,
think warm, wet air from around Hawaii,
the so-called Pineapple Express, and
funneled a series of atmospheric river
storms into California. And we've
already talked about what happened here.
10 inches of rain already logged by
early December in some areas. That's
half a year's worth of rain in just 2
months. It turns out the type of storm
responsible for this soaking in
California is kryptonite to Leninia 2,
compounding matters even further.
Atmospheric rivers are fueling these
fires, or lack thereof. And it turns out
Leninia and El Nino don't really control
atmospheric rivers. A recent study
published in Climate Dynamics found that
ENSO mostly affects the typical winter
storms that come from the North Pacific
or Alaska, but not the big AR driven
storms from the subtropics.
Those ARs are steered by more complex
and often more random factors. So,
California basically got hit by an AR
lottery win or loss depending on how you
view flooding. And it might well mean
that all bets are off. Not just here,
but around the world. So, what comes
next?
I wish I could give you a nice neat
answer to take away and enjoy the rest
of your day with, but based on all we've
talked about, and I'm sure you've summed
by now anyway, no one really knows. But
we can have a pretty good guess because
of how short this leninia is. And in
fact, by the time you watch this, it may
already be on its way out. As we've
alluded to in this video, what
forecasters are looking at now is a
potential major Pacific flip to El Nino
by late 2026.
In fact, the data suggests a kind of
climate whiplash. After many months of
Leninia's cold pattern, the Pacific is
primed to swing hot. Now, if that
happens, the winter of 2026, 2027 could
be completely different for America and
even us over here in Europe. This shows
how unusual this situation is. a short
weak leninia that barely showed up and
will be gone in the blink of an eye,
flipping to what could become a strong
El Nino. Historically, such quick
turnarounds can be jolting. It means
within a year or so, regions might go
from one extreme to the other. For
example, if California surprisingly got
a wet leninia winter this year, could it
get hammered by an even wetter El Nino
winter next year? Or in reverse, parts
of Australia that didn't see expected
Leninia rains might face severe drought
and heat if El Nino arrives on schedule.
The climate system gears are shifting
fast.
So what are the implications of this
misbehaving Leninia and the changes
surrounding it, especially for us? Well,
firstly, all of this is a rather stark
reminder of just how connected our world
is through these climate patterns. When
Leninia or El Nino acts up, it's not
just one region dealing with a headache.
It's often multiple regions
simultaneously.
As we touched on earlier, scientists
using NASA's Grace satellites, which
measure Earth's water storage, found
that ENSO is the primary driver of
extreme water shortages and surpluses
worldwide in the satellite record. In
practical terms, this means a single
leninia event could cause agricultural
crisis in Africa and flooding
emergencies in Asia at the same time.
For instance, while 202010 and 2011's
leninia was flooding Brisbane and Sao
Paulo, it was also contributing to
drought in the Horn of Africa.
These synchronized extremes put a big
strain on the global system. If multiple
bread basket regions get hit, one with a
drought, one with a flood, concurrently,
it can disrupt food supply and even
trade.
The catch is if this leninia is not
doing what's expected, it throws off
some of that planning. Regions that were
gearing up for one scenario, say drought
relief that never came or mild climate
conditions that turned extreme, well,
they can be caught wrongfooted.
It's a reminder that climate
preparedness needs to be flexible and
account for a range of outcomes, not
just the most likely forecast.
We're also likely staring down more
volatile swings in our climate. Climate
change isn't making ENSO go away. If
anything, it might amp up the extremes
of it. We saw a preview of this in
California in recent years. Horrific
wildfires and empty reservoirs between
the 2020 2012 and 2016 drought which
have both Leninia and Elnino influences.
Then a flood barrage in 2017 where
Leninia bought big storms. Then another
drought by 2020 and then 31 atmospheric
rivers storms in the winter of 2022 2023
which broke all rainfall records. To me,
Leninia and El Nino are like the hands
on the steering wheel. But climate
change has its foot on the gas pedal,
making the swerves even more violent.
If that all sounds a bit doom and gloom
to you, which it does to me, and you're
looking for some positivity and amongst
all of this, uh, on the bright side, our
understanding of these patterns has
grown immensely. Agencies like Noah, the
WMO, and various research institutes are
monitoring the Pacific with cuttingedge
satellites. There's things like the new
Sentinel 6 series that observes ocean
conditions in detail and various
computer models. We often get a heads up
months in advance if Leninia or El Nino
is forming. And that lead time is
crucial. The key is using that
information wisely, but also not being
overconfident in the historical rules of
Enzo. Basically, prepare for Leninia,
but brace for anything should be on the
fronts of any t-shirt these scientists
are wearing. In the end, the tale of
this leninia is a microcosm of our
changing climate reality. A normally
familiar pattern decided to not behave
in a familiar way. It reminds us that
we're living through an era where old
assumptions may not hold and we're
entering the unknown, a new normal, and
things are changing. Yes, Leninia is
still Leninia and the Pacific Ocean is
still doing what it does, but the
context around it is different.
What keeps me positive is the hope that
we will watch and learn. So often, it's
the systems we can't see that have the
most impact and are often the things we
think about last. Each surprise is a
lesson that can improve forecasts and
preparedness.
The fact that researchers quickly
identified why California got soaked
from those atmospheric rivers or why
Australia might stay hot due to the
global warming influence means our
scientific toolkit is getting sharper.
And knowledge, my friends, is power. The
more we understand these evolving
patterns, the better we can anticipate
and adapt to whatever climate curve
balls come our way.